The Estimated Climate Impact of the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai Eruption Plume

Abstract

On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HT) eruption injected SO2 and water into the middle stratosphere. The SO2 is rapidly converted to sulfate aerosols. The aerosol and water vapor anomalies have persisted in the Southern Hemisphere throughout 2022. The water vapor anomaly increases the net downward IR radiative flux whereas the aerosol layer reduces the direct solar forcing. The direct solar flux reduction is larger than the increased IR flux. Thus, the net tropospheric forcing will be negative. The changes in radiative forcing peak in July and August and diminish thereafter. Scaling to the observed cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, HT would cool the 2022 Southern Hemisphere's average surface temperatures by less than 0.037°C.

Evolving Particles in the 2022 Hunga Tonga—Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Eruption Plume

“…They support their satellite-data interpretation with measurements from multiple low-latitude AERONET stations, including the Lucinda and Learmonth stations that we use for validation in the current study. Based on water vapor and temperature data from the MLS instrument and aerosol extinction from the OMPS-LP instrument, Schoeberl et al (2023) conclude that surface warming due to water vapor infrared opacity was more than offset over the southern hemisphere by surface cooling caused by aerosol reflection of solar radiation back to space. Gupta et al (2024) reached a similar conclusions, using Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment-III (SAGE-III) observations to characterize stratospheric aerosol amount and extinction associated with the HTHH eruption.…”

Global Geophysical Effects Caused by the Hunga-Tonga- Hunga-Haapai Vulcan Eruption 15 January 2022 (Review)

“…Зависимость измеренной оптической плотности аэрозоля от номера дня после извержения Тонги в 2022 году. Черные крестики -максимальные значения ОПА, синие -средние значения за день наблюдений (рисунок адаптирован из [Schoeberl et al, 2023]) [Fujiwara et al, 2020] оценили снижение температуры поверхности тропосферы, вызванное извержением вулкана Pinatubo в июне 1991 г. [Schoeberl et al, 2023], и масштабируя их результаты на параметры плюма ХТХ, оценили вероятное изменение средней температуры поверхности Южного полушария в 2022 году в 0.037° C.…”

Antarctic Vortex Dehydration in 2023 as a Substantial Removal Pathway for Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai Water Vapor

“…Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite measurements indicate that around 150 Tg of H 2 O was injected, increasing the stratospheric burden by around 10% (Khaykin et al., 2022; Millán et al., 2022; Xu et al., 2022), while the SO 2 injection was only 0.5 Tg. This is expected to generate a very different climate forcing to other satellite‐observed SO 2 ‐rich volcanic eruptions, possibly leading to a net warming of the global surface temperature due to the dominant radiative effect of H 2 O perturbations (Jenkins et al., 2023; Sellitto et al., 2022), yet remaining highly uncertain as indicated by a recent detailed radiative transfer calculation (Schoeberl et al., 2023).…”