The EU's natural gas Cold War and diversification challenges

Lambert, Laurent A.; Tayah, Jad; Lee-Schmid, Caroline; Abdalla, Monged; Abdallah, Ismail; Ali, Abdalftah H.M.; Esmail, Suhail; Ahmed, W. S.

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2022.100934

Cited by 69 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…How quickly alternative suppliers will be found or developed is as difficult to estimate as the evolution of energy prices (Genschel, 2022). In particular, the possible reduction of gas supplies from Russia to Europe will result in a considerable shift in the economic prospects (Lambert et al, 2022). Without further escalation of the conflict between Russia and NATO countries driven by economic reasons, restrictions should be expected to remain in the event of a continuing conflict or a 'frozen conflict'.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Boichenko

Ashraf

Mata

et al. 2023

Central European Economic Journal

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The war in Ukraine affects the European Union (EU) member states asymmetrically. The purpose of the study is to determine changes in the development of the EU countries in three key directions: ‘economy and environment’, ‘business and trade’, and ‘people and work’; to identify clusters of countries with similar transformations; and to model the impact of the studied indicators on the level of public debt amid the war in Ukraine. The research methodology includes the definition of a complex indicator of changes in the socio-economic development of EU countries, correlation and cluster analysis, and modelling the influence of the studied factors/indicators on the level of public debt. Research of changes in the context of the proposed complex indicators and their components under conditions of war showed that the changes in the areas under review varied for EU countries. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, 17 EU countries faced a slowdown in their socio-economic growth, among which Poland was the most severely affected. Modelling made it possible to determine that, amid the war, the most important factors for the EU public debt are inflation, labour market conditions, and the possibilities of the balance of payments and the international investment position incorporated into GDP. The conducted research proves that the war in Ukraine increases the scale and relevance of general challenges that cannot be addressed at the national level. Strengthening the European defence against external aggression is the entire task of the EU.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Depending on the political and military escalation, the energy supply can be threatened by the loss of gas supplies. Further significant price increases cannot be excluded (Lambert et al, 2022). Energy markets have already demonstrated significant turbulence during the escalation of the crisis.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Boichenko

Ashraf

Mata

et al. 2023

Central European Economic Journal

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“…This tariff represents a shadow price associated with the constraint. Here we take into account the actual possibilities for diversified European gas provisions in the short and medium term suggested by Lambert et al [64] by introducing additional constraints on additional natural gas imports from the EU's trading partners. 6 These reflect capacity constraints on natural gas transportation by pipeline or by sea as illustrated in Fig.…”

Section: The Fossil Energy Import Restriction Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

European Economic impacts of cutting energy imports from Russia: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Perdana

Vielle

Schenckery

2022

Energy Strategy Reviews

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“…There are, moreover, limitations in the number and types of specialty ships available to transport natural gas or liquified natural gas. Second, there is a lack of decompression infrastructure within the EU to ferry the gas across the member states …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Security and Sustainability for the European Union after/during the Ukraine Crisis: A Perspective

Liu

Wong

et al. 2023

Energy Fuels

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The special military operation initiated by the Russian Federation (RF) against Ukraine has focused on the European Union (EU) and, to a lesser degree, U.S. fossil fuel resource dependency. The Russian Federation's economy is heavily geared toward exports of carbonbased fuels. As a result of the proximity of the EU and Ukraine, these two entities are the largest importers of RF fossil fuels. Ukraine's and EU's large population and heavy industries utilize energy in large quantities. As a result of the overreliance on Russian carbon energy imports, the overall energy security index of the EU dropped by approximately 1−1.5% over the last 20 years. The energy security index can positively correlate with greenhouse emissions or a composite unit considering gas reserves and carbon dioxide emissions. To improve the EU energy security index, the EU imposed several phase-out energy bans in coordination with the U.K., U.S., Canada, Japan, and Australia in response to the ongoing crisis. An energy balance analysis demonstrates that an attractive option, namely, a hydrogen (H 2 ) infrastructure upgrade at the EU regional level, is feasible. The infrastructure upgrade at the regional level could generate an energy equivalent substitution of 20 exajoules (1 × 10 18 J) for heating and power to enable the EU to be free of energy imports from the RF for all carbon resources except oil. Further policy changes to facilitate a transition to sustainable resources, along with corresponding improvements in the efficiency of businesses, housing, and transport sector, could make the EU carbon neutral by 2050 and free from RF carbon imports before 2060.

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The EU's natural gas Cold War and diversification challenges

Cited by 69 publications

References 3 publications

The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

European Economic impacts of cutting energy imports from Russia: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Energy Security and Sustainability for the European Union after/during the Ukraine Crisis: A Perspective

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