The EU under a realist scope: Employing a neoclassical realist framework for the analysis of the EU’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement offer to Ukraine

Abstract

This article breaks from the dominant liberal-idealist literature and examines the European Union's (EU) foreign policy decisions from a realist perspective. Through employing a novel, EU-focussed neoclassical realist framework, the EU's offer of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) to Ukraine is argued as being a result of the mediating influence of its normative power role identity, the (mis)perceptions held by its foreign policy decisionmakers and the institutional constraints inherent to its foreign policy decision-making process, which filtered systemic pressures (emanating from the European geopolitical setting) into the final foreign policy decision. Thereafter, this article assesses the EU's responses to the Ukraine crisis, offering policy reflections and recommendations.

The European Union as an Inadvertent Great Power: EU Actorness and the Ukraine Crisis

“…Whereas others have observed a lack of strategic thinking within the EU (Haukkala, 2016) or a misperception of Russian strength by EU decision-makers (N.R. Smith, 2016), we argue that the EU's Ukraine policy is the consequence of deeply engrained characteristics of its institutional structure.…”

“…While some Member States like Poland advocated the EaP as a tool to increase the political distance to Moscow, others did not follow (N.R. Smith, , p. 39). Hence, the EaP as such did not result from, nor trigger, a common strategic reflection of the EU's ‘own role and the role of Russia in the region’ (Haukkala, , p. 7), although Russia reacted critically to its adoption.…”

“…The EU's increasing importance as a trade partner mitigated Ukrainian economic dependence on Russia (N.R. Smith, , p. 36). By 2012, the pre‐crisis year, the EU was roughly as important as Russia for Ukraine regarding both imports and exports, with Belarus and Kazakhstan together accounting for another 7–8 per cent of Ukrainian imports and exports.…”

“…However, this literature has hardly paid attention to the possibility of EU great power politics (for recent exceptions, see Haukkala, and N.R. Smith, ). Furthermore, cross‐policy effects that are central to our argument have rarely been systematically examined, although hints exist both in the theoretical literature (Moravcsik, , pp.…”

“…Much of this literature has focused on EU 'market power' and other communitarized policies and their export (Damro, 2012(Damro, , 2015Lavenex and Schimmelfennig, 2009), while only beginning to explore broader effects such as the formation of a 'normative empire' especially with respect to smaller neighbouring countries (Del Sarto, 2016). However, this literature has hardly paid attention to the possibility of EU great power politics (for recent exceptions, see Haukkala, 2016 andN.R. Smith, 2016).…”