The European energy outlook to 2010 and 2030

Capros, Pantélis; Mantzos, Leonidas

doi:10.1504/ijgei.2000.004353

Cited by 15 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Energy scenarios are a tool for analyzing the future energy development. The scenarios may differ by their geographic coverage (country‐specific, regional, global), sectoral coverage (industry‐focused, energy system‐focused, economy‐wide focused), time horizon (short‐term, medium‐term, long‐term), and their basis (model‐based, expert‐based, expert‐based using a range of analytical tools). The scenarios also differ by their stated purpose of development.…”

Section: Types Of Energy Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis

Paltsev

2016

WIREs Energy & Environment

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A need for low‐carbon world has added a new challenging dimension for the long‐term energy scenarios development. In addition to the traditional factors like technological progress, demographic, economic, political, and institutional considerations, there is another aspect of the modern energy forecasts related to the coverage, timing, and stringency of policies to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. Modern tools for the energy scenario development provide a good basis for the estimates of the required changes in the energy system to achieve certain climate and environmental targets. While the current scenarios show that a move to a low‐carbon energy future requires a drastic change in energy investment and the resulting mix in energy technologies, the exact technology mix, paths to the needed mix, price, and cost projections should be treated with a great degree of caution. The scenarios do not provide exact predictions, but they can be used as a qualitative analysis of decision‐making risks associated with different pathways. If history is any guide, energy scenarios overestimate the extent to which the future will look like the recent past. As future costs and the resulting technology mixes are uncertain, a wise government policy is to target emissions reductions from any source, rather than focus on boosting certain kinds of low‐carbon energy. WIREs Energy Environ 2017, 6:e242. doi: 10.1002/wene.242 This article is categorized under: Energy and Climate > Economics and Policy Energy and Climate > Systems and Infrastructure Energy Policy and Planning > Economics and Policy

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Section: Types Of Energy Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis

Paltsev

2016

WIREs Energy & Environment

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“…Li et al, [19] work with the concepts of strategic and non-strategic high and low energy intensity sectors, defining strategic industries as those with lower energy intensity and higher value added. Williams et al [20] equate energy intensive industries with material-intensive industries, as do Capros and Mantzos [21]. The Department of Energy of the United States [22] defines three groups: high-energy consumer, high value added consumers and low energy consumers.…”

Section: Decomposition Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…† Heavy and light industry concepts are related to the use of capital and labor (i.e. [17,21]). Industries that use capital intensively are considered as heavy, whereas labor-intensive industries are considered as light.…”

Section: Decomposition Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the basis of the above mentioned considerations it can be concluded that as far as capital and labor are concerned, the concepts 'heavy and light industries' should be approached with caution especially because an intensive use of labor in a manufacturing sector does not necessarily imply a low energy intensity. This probably explains why labor-intensive industries are sometimes considered to be high consumers of energy and therefore part of the energy intensive sector [17] and sometimes low consumers of energy and therefore part of the non-energy intensive sector [21]. 8 The average energy intensity for the whole manufacturing sector dropped from 18.8 in 1993 to 16.0 MJ/Euro VA in 1998 while the average labour intensity dropped from 24.4 to 16.3 employees/mln Euro VA for the same years.…”

Section: Decomposition Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ramirez

Patel

Blok

2005

Energy

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“…Several works on prospective modelling have already been done on all or part of the economy (e.g. electricity production sector, industry, residential sector and transport) for France and other countries [7,[9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]. In our paper we focus on the industry sector in France.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%