The European Russia Drought Atlas (1400–2016 CE)

Cook, Edward R.; Solomina, Olga; Matskovsky, Vladimir; Cook, Benjamin I.; Агафонов, Л. И.; Berdnikova, Alina; Dolgova, Ekaterina; Karpukhin, A. A.; Knysh, Natallia; Кулакова, М. И.; Kuznetsova, Veronika; Kyncl, Tomáš; Kyncl, Josef; Maximova, O. V.; Panyushkina, Irina P.; Seim, Andrea; Tishin, Denis V.; Ważny, Tomasz; Yermokhin, Maxim

doi:10.1007/s00382-019-05115-2

Cited by 53 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Although the physical logic of the process is reversed (the growth of trees depends on the climate parameter, and not vice versa), the problem statement for solving it using data-driven methods uses exactly this formulationfrom data to process (Reichstein et al 2019). PCR is commonly used in dendroclimatology, so we will not describe it in detail, but it is the base of the Point-by-Point Regression method (PPR, Cook et al 1999), which is widely used for spatial drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data (Cook et al 2015(Cook et al , 2020Morales et al 2020). PLSR originated from social sciences but found its broad application mainly in chemometrics (Abdi, 2010).…”

Section: Partial Least Squares Regression and Principal Component Regressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Four Centuries of Summer Temperature Changes in Tierra Del Fuego: Atmospheric Drivers and Tree-Ring Reconstruction From the Southernmost Forests of the World

Matskovsky

Roig

Fuentes

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Proxy climate records, such as those derived from tree rings, are necessary to extend relatively short instrumental meteorological observations into the past. Tierra del Fuego is the most austral territory with forests in the world, situated close to the Antarctic Peninsula, which makes this region especially interesting for paleoclimatic research. However, high-quality, high-resolution summer temperature reconstruction are lacking in the region. In this study we used 63 tree-ring width chronologies of Nothofagus pumilio and Nothofagus betuloides and partial least squares regression (PLSR) to produce annually resolved December-to-February temperature reconstruction since AD 1600 which explains up to 65% of instrumental temperature variability. We also found that observed summer temperature variability in Tierra del Fuego is primarily driven by the fluctuations of atmospheric pressure systems both in the South Atlantic and South Pacific, while it is insignificantly correlated to major hemispheric modes: ENSO and SAM. This fact makes our reconstruction important for climate modelling experiments, as it represents specific regional variability. Our reconstruction can be used for direct comparison with model outputs to better understand model limitations or to tune a model or contribute to larger scale reconstructions based on paleoclimatic data assimilation. Moreover, we showed that PLSR has improved performance over principal component regression (PCR) in the case of multiple tree-ring predictors. According to these results, PLSR may be a preferable method over PCR for the use in automated tree-ring based reconstruction approaches, akin widely used point-by-point regression.

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Section: Partial Least Squares Regression and Principal Component Regressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Four Centuries of Summer Temperature Changes in Tierra Del Fuego: Atmospheric Drivers and Tree-Ring Reconstruction From the Southernmost Forests of the World

Matskovsky

Roig

Fuentes

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Instead, one can reconstruct each point in the field independently and rely on the proxy network to capture the spatial patterns. This is the premise of the Point‐by‐Point Regression (PPR) method (Cook et al., 1999), which has been used to reconstruct drought atlases of Europe (Cook et al., 2015, 2020), the Americas (Cook et al., 1999; Morales et al., 2020; Stahle et al., 2016), Oceania (Palmer et al., 2015), and Asia (Cook et al., 2010). These drought atlases demonstrate that PPR captures well the spatial patterns of climate variability (see, e.g., Cook et al., 1999, Figures 8 and 9).…”

Section: Reconstruction Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coherent Streamflow Variability in Monsoon Asia Over the Past Eight Centuries—Links to Oceanic Drivers

Nguyen

Turner

Buckley

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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The Monsoon Asia region is home to ten of the world's biggest rivers, supporting the lives of 1.7 billion people who rely on streamflow for water, energy, and food. Yet a synthesized understanding of multicentennial streamflow variability for this region is lacking. To fill this gap, we produce the first large scale streamflow reconstruction over Monsoon Asia (62 stations in 16 countries, 813 years of mean annual flow). In making this reconstruction, we develop a novel, automated, climate-informed, and dynamic reconstruction framework that is skillful over most of the region. We show that streamflow in Monsoon Asia is spatially coherent, owing to common drivers from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. We also show how these oceanic teleconnections change over space and time. By characterizing past and present hydroclimatic variability, we provide a platform for assessing the impact of future climatic changes and informing water management decisions. Plain Language Summary Ten of the world's biggest rivers are located entirely within the Asian Monsoon region. They provide water, energy, and food for 1.7 billion people. To manage these critical resources, we need a better understanding of river discharge-how does it change over a long time? Are there common variation patterns among rivers? To answer these questions, we use information derived from tree rings to reconstruct average annual river discharge history at 62 gauges in 16 Asian countries. Our reconstruction reveals the riparian footprint of megadroughts and large volcanic eruptions over the past eight centuries. We show that simultaneous droughts and pluvials have often occurred at adjacent river basins in the past, because Asian rivers share common influences from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. We also show how these oceanic teleconnections change over space and time. Our findings can inform big decisions made on water-dependent infrastructure, thus benefiting the riparian people of the Asian Monsoon region.

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“…especially Fennoscandia and Lithuania (Figure 1). Meanwhile, looking at the new European Russia Drought Atlas (Cook et al, 2020) one will see dozens of sites in this area. Thus, a rich data set presented mostly in the Russian literature is hidden behind the empty space at the map.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dendrochronology in European Russia in the Early 21st Century: State of the Art

Solomina

Matskovsky

2021

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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In this review, we have focused on the following key points: (1) living trees in European Russia and their climatic sensitivity. Species suitable for tree-ring analyses, their age limits, spatial distribution of temperature- and drought-sensitive trees, and the available tree-ring chronologies. (2) Extension of the living-tree chronologies using archeological and architectural samples. Dendrochronological dating of archeological and cultural monuments. (3) Tree-ring-based climatic reconstructions in European Russia. European Russia drought atlas. (4) Climatic and environmental reconstructions in the Northern Caucasus. (5) Dendroecology. We also briefly summarized the problems and prospects of tree-ring research in European Russia.

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The European Russia Drought Atlas (1400–2016 CE)

Cited by 53 publications

References 69 publications

Four Centuries of Summer Temperature Changes in Tierra Del Fuego: Atmospheric Drivers and Tree-Ring Reconstruction From the Southernmost Forests of the World

Four Centuries of Summer Temperature Changes in Tierra Del Fuego: Atmospheric Drivers and Tree-Ring Reconstruction From the Southernmost Forests of the World

Coherent Streamflow Variability in Monsoon Asia Over the Past Eight Centuries—Links to Oceanic Drivers

Dendrochronology in European Russia in the Early 21st Century: State of the Art

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