The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism

Abstract

We study the implications of the Great Recession for voting for antiestablishment parties, as well as for general trust and political attitudes, using regional data across Europe. We find a strong relationship between increases in unemployment and voting for nonmainstream parties, especially populist ones. Moreover, unemployment increases in tandem with declining trust toward national and European political institutions, though we find only weak or no effects of unemployment on interpersonal trust. The correlation between unemployment and attitudes toward immigrants is muted, especially for their cultural impact. To explore causality, we extract the component of increases in unemployment explained by the precrisis structure of the economy, in particular the share of construction in regional value added, which is strongly related both to the buildup preceding and the bursting of the crisis. Our results imply that crisis-driven economic insecurity is a substantial determinant of populism and political distrust. A specter is haunting Europe and the West-the specter of populism.

A post‐liberal theory of stratification

“…Unlike median‐voter theory and related materialist accounts, a rent‐based account thus emphasizes that losses represented in zero‐sum terms are a peculiarly activating form of inequality, especially when those losses are also seen as illicit. Because rent‐reduction movements are fine‐tuned for delivering losses that can be interpreted in precisely this way, they can be expected to inspire all manner of reactive rent‐restoration movements (see Algan, Guriev, Papaioannou and Passari ; Bor )…”

Crisis? What crisis? Economic recovery and support for independence in Catalonia

“…Analyses of the political effects of the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have generated a huge amount of literature among social scientists (for a general overview see, for example, Algan, Guriev, Papaioannou, &Passari, 2017 andDustmann, Eichengree, Otten, Sapir, Tabellini, &Zoega, 2017 andreferences therein). One of the main ideas to emerge from this line of research is that the negative economic consequences of 1 It should be borne in mind that the analysis of the effects of changing economic conditions (conjuncture) on support for independence is not the same as the crisis (including, unemployment and lower personal income levels) might, at least in part, be behind the significant phenomena that have had such a marked impact on the political scenario in various countries.…”

The Democratic Crisis and the Knowledge Problem

“…However, this does not reflect generalized distrust in institutions, as, for instance, the trust in the legal system, in the police, or in the United Nations has not been affected (Algan et al . ).…”

“…The above‐mentioned success of populist parties is indeed motivated by a strong and widespread antiestablishment feeling. Recent studies, such as that by Algan and others () for European countries, show that the trust in politicians, political parties, national parliaments, and the European Parliament decreased substantially after the 2008 global financial crisis. However, this does not reflect generalized distrust in institutions, as, for instance, the trust in the legal system, in the police, or in the United Nations has not been affected (Algan et al .…”