The European Union, Russia, and the Future of the Transnistrian Frozen Conflict

Abstract

In recent years, increased European Union interest in its eastern “neighborhood” has been hailed as a possible solution of the Transnistrian frozen conflict. The fall of the communist authoritarian regime of Chişinău and the internal crisis of the Smirnov regime in Tiraspol also modified the conditions of the nineteen-year conflict. However, the European involvement in Moldova is perceived by the Kremlin as an intrusion in its own domaine réservé. Moreover, the 2008 war in South Ossetia illustrates Russia’s return to the early 1990s policy of overt instrumentalization of the post-Soviet frozen conflicts. This volatile situation is analyzed in order to predict the future evolution of the Transnistrian conflict in the larger context of the developing regional rivalry between Brussels and Moscow.

The EU Foreign Policy Analysis

“…Its duty of pacifying the conflict was reinforced by the fact that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)-with even talks of membership-and the United States sided too early with Georgia, compromising any potential agreement (Biscop, 2010, p. 83). Before the war, bureaucrats in Brussels were very reluctant to involve the EU in frozen conflicts, as they considered that this would damage not only its relations with Russia, but also the success of the ENP (Ivan, 2012b;Nitoiu, 2012;Tudoroiu, 2012). Since the end of the war, Commission officials have stressed that the EU's mission consisting of 200 field specialists sent in to oversee the peace agreement in Georgia has been a success, and therefore the Union has proven that it possesses the instruments to manage, contain, and end conflicts (Weaver, 2010, p. 74).…”

Geopolitics of a Divided Europe

“…7 The eU is based upon the notion that the use of force in international affairs should be avoided at all costs, that most conflicts can be resolved through economic interchange and diplomacy, and that nations should be free to decide their political fates. These principles have enabled the eU to help keep the peace in europe for nearly seventy years, and european political leaders believe that they remain relevant today.…”

Balancing on the Shoulders of Giants: Moldova's Foreign Policy toward Russia and the European Union

“…By the time of the legislative elections in 2005, these ties between Russia and the PCRM were at a low point. During a speech at the NATO summit in 2004, president Voronin asked, for the first time, Moscow to pull out its troops from Transnistria (Tudoroiu :142). Voronin also declined to attend the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) annual meeting in Kazakhstan (Quinlan :138).…”

“…Moscow initially resisted the format but relented to granting the Western entities “observer” status (Quinlan :143). Western support improved Moldova's standing in the negotiations by, at the very least, allowing Moldova to tie its negotiating position to its Western supporters (Tudoroiu :142). The move was part of a conscious Communist effort to gain more leverage over the separatists and over Russia in the negotiations.…”