The Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Water Scarcity of the Han River Basin in South Korea Using High Resolution RCM Data

김수전,; 김병식,; 전환돈,; 김형수,

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2010.43.3.295

Cited by 19 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Compared to global models, regional climate models (RCMs) with higher resolutions can not only describe the characteristics of large-scale circulation, but also accurately capture the characteristics of climate change at the regional scale [17][18][19]. Different scenarios generate different prediction trends for future climate change and have been widely used in global and regional climate change predictions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Runoff in the Upper Taohe River Basin and Its Responses to Climate Change

Cheng

Yang

et al. 2022

Water

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Climate change has a significant impact on water resources. Forecasts and simulations of climate runoff processes are essential for assessing the impact of global climate change on runoff variations. This study focuses on the upper Taohe River Basin, which is an important watershed in the semi-arid regions of northwest China. To assess the runoff in the upper Taohe River Basin and the responses to climate change, the SWAT hydrological model was used to analyze future climate change scenarios and their effects on water resources. The results indicate that the minimum temperature would increase gradually in the 21st century and that the minimum temperature change would be more significant than the maximum temperature change, which indicates that minimum temperature changes would make an obvious contribution to future regional warming. Under RCP2.6, the average precipitation would decrease; at the same time, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the average precipitation would increase. In the future, under different climate scenarios, the runoff will exhibit droughts and flood disasters. These research results provide scientific support for water resource utilization and management in the Taohe River Basin.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Runoff in the Upper Taohe River Basin and Its Responses to Climate Change

Cheng

Yang

et al. 2022

Water

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“…Therefore, many studies have been undertaken, because they can be overcome by the copula theory, which was suggested by Sklar [24]. The drought surmised that the increased with climate change, there are also many on-going studies about drought are conducted [26] with Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Model (hereafter referred as 'GCM' and 'RCM') [25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. Considering that the GCM/RCM is one of the effective ways for future projection, drought frequency analysis based on the copula theory and GCM/RCM could be a good alternative for water resources managements or planning.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Drought Analysis Based on Copula Theory

Kwak¹,

Kim²,

Kim³

et al. 2016

River Basin Management

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Drought has been a more frequent phenomenon of major concern all over the world. From the perspective of water resources management, one of the biggest problems associated with drought analyses is a lack of quantitative estimation for the target drought amount. The objective of this study is to examine the establishing process for the severity-duration-frequency (hereafter referred as "SDF") curves on climate change. The standardized truncation level that defines hydrological drought was estimated and a bivariate frequency analysis for drought duration and severity was derived. The SDF curves were also estimated. The methodology suggested in this study could be used as elementary data for water resources managements.

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“…However, "The Strategic Report," which is the first national report on water resources planning that considered climate change, was published based on the research [15]. The Strategic Report estimated the future water balance of the Korean Peninsula, taking into consideration climate change information, as shown in Table 1, but there remained two issues to be resolved.…”

Section: An Example Of Water Balance Analysis Using Climate Change Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, various water balance analysis models have been utilized, which include CalSim II [6], WEAP [7,8], CALVIN [3], WRAP [9], Mospa [10], Sibuc [11], IQQM [12], Riverware [13], and WSM [14]. In Korea, the K-WEAP and the K-MODSIM models have been popularly employed for water balance analysis, and there have been several efforts to incorporate GCM scenarios into water balance analysis to reflect future climate change impact [15][16][17]. Thus, most studies made use of different models for their own purposes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Way for Incorporating GCM Information into Water Shortage Projections

Seo

Kim

2015

Water

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Climate change information is essential for water resources management planning, and the majority of research available uses the global circulation model (GCM) data to project future water balance. Despite the fact that the results of various GCMs are still heterogeneous, it is common to utilize GCM values directly in climate change impact assessment models. To mitigate these limitations, this study provides an alternative methodology, which uses GCM-based data to assign weights on historical scenarios rather than to directly input their values into the assessment models, thereby reducing the uncertainty involved in the direct use of GCMs. Therefore, the real innovation of this study is placed on the use of a new probability weighting scheme with multiple GCMs rather than on the direct input of GCM-driven data. Applied to make future projections of the water shortage in the Han River basin of Korea, the proposed methodology produced conservative but realistic projection results (15% increase) compared to the existing methodologies, which projected a dramatic increase (144%) in water shortage over 10 years. As a result, it was anticipated that the amount of water shortages in the Han River basin would gradually increase in the next 90 years, including a 57% increase in the 2080s. OPEN ACCESSWater 2015, 7 2436

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The Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Water Scarcity of the Han River Basin in South Korea Using High Resolution RCM Data

Cited by 19 publications

References 14 publications

The Runoff in the Upper Taohe River Basin and Its Responses to Climate Change

The Runoff in the Upper Taohe River Basin and Its Responses to Climate Change

Hydrological Drought Analysis Based on Copula Theory

A New Way for Incorporating GCM Information into Water Shortage Projections

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