The evaluation of volcanic risk in the Vesuvian area

Scandone, Roberto; Arganese, Giovanni; Galdi, Flavio

doi:10.1016/0377-0273(93)90112-5

Cited by 44 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Crowe et al (1992) reviewed recurrence models for volcanic events and discussed the rationale for choosing a simple Poisson model for probabilistic volcanic risk assessment for the YMFL Briefly, the model is conceptually simple, assumptions using this model are well defined, and potential errors can be constrained. The simple Poisson model is widely used in many volcanism studies (for example, De la CruzReyna 1991; Scandone et al 1993). The Poisson model is particularly appropriate and may be conservative for the case of the YMR where multiple lines of evidence indicate patterns of volcanism may be waning over the last 4.8 Ma Crowe et al 1992;.…”

Section: -8mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The term risk is used when either the occurrence probability or consequences of a volcanic event have been determined; its usage does not require definition of both occurrence probability and consequences. Some authors use the term hazard to refer to the probability that a specific area will be affected by a volcanic eruption (Scandone et al 1993). We prefer to use the term volcanic hazard less specifically, and use probabilistic assessment or occurrence probability to refer to probabilistic studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Crowe¹,

Perry²,

Murrell³

et al. 1995

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; ifs unique idenfzfier assigned to fhis appendix is LA-EES-13-LV-12-95-002. To obtain rgerences bgore fhe appendix is issued, confacf Kean Finnegan at (7021-794-7273 ABSTRACTChapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the two cycles of the Postcaldera basalt, the Older postcaldera basalt and the Younger postcaldera basalt. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR, it has been problematic to establish the geochronology of the center; and it probably formed during multiple, timeseparate eruptive events, an unexpected difference from typical monogenetic basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The Crater Flat volcanic zone is defined and described as one of many alternative models of the structural controls of the distribution of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers in the YMR. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. Geochemical and isotopic data are described that indicate basalt of the southern Great Basin was derived from ancient lithospheric mantle. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Quaternary lavas of the YMR lack plagioclase phenocrysts and fractionated at high pressure in the lower crust or upper mantle before ascent and eruption. The compositional variation of the Lathrop Wells center provides strong evidence of formation from separate and unrelated magma batches. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Magma ascending as dikes probably followed northwest-trending structure at depth and diverted at shallow depths following the direction of maximum compressive stress. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work f...

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Section: -8mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Crowe¹,

Perry²,

Murrell³

et al. 1995

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“…The simple Poisson model is widely used in many volcanism studies (for example, . De la Cruz-Reyna, 1991;Scandone et al, 1993;Geomatrix, 1996). The Poisson model is particularly appropriate and may be conservative for the case of the YMR where multiple lines of evidence indicate patterns of volcanism may be waning over the last 4.8 Ma Crowe et al, 1992;.…”

Section: A Probabilistic Approach To Volcanism Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systhesis of Volcanism Studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Perry¹,

Crowe²,

Valentine³

et al. 1997

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“…Despite its importance, volcanic hazard assessment is still commonly presented in many different ways, ranging from maps of past deposits of the volcano to more quantitative probabilistic assessment (e.g., Scandone et al 1993;Newhall and Hoblitt 2002;Marzocchi et al 2004;Martin et al 2004;Neri et al 2008;Marti et al 2008). The latter, being quantitative, has remarkable advantages: (1) it allows comparisons among different volcanoes and with other natural and nonnatural hazards, (2) its reliability can be tested through statistical procedures, and (3) it provides a basic component for rationale decision making (e.g., Marzocchi andWoo 2007, 2009;Woo 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

2010

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In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history. For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard from tephra fall.

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The evaluation of volcanic risk in the Vesuvian area

Cited by 44 publications

References 5 publications

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Systhesis of Volcanism Studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

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