The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond

Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Palmer, Matthew D.; Camargo, Carolina M.L.; Church, John A.; Edwards, Tamsin; Hermans, Tim H. J.; Hewitt, Helene T.; Garner, Gregory G.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Kopp, Robert; Santos, Victor Malagon; Wal, R. S. W. van de

doi:10.1017/cft.2022.8

Cited by 19 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 106 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Hence, the methodological and model developments at the time will be reflected in UKCP projections. For a detailed comparison of IPCC sea-level projections, the reader is referred to Slangen et al (2023).…”

Section: Evolution Of Global Mean Sea-level (Gmsl) Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wang et al (2021a) evaluated AR5 GMSL and regional weighted mean sea-level projections against satellite altimeter and tide gauge observations from 2007 to 2018, finding consistent trends to within the 90% confidence level. Slangen et al (2023) extended this analysis for GMSL, and compared the AR6 observational time series against AR5 projections (2007 to 2017). They found GMSL, GTE, and the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets showed high consistency on rates of projected and observed sea-level change whilst other individual component trends agreed mostly to within the likely range.…”

Section: Scientific Confidence In Understanding and Projecting Sea-le...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…AR6 likely range sealevel projections were therefore generally presented as the 17th to 83rd percentile range and included sea-level process uncertainty as well as GSAT uncertainty (Fox-Kemper et al 2021, Caretta et al 2022). The 17th to 83rd percentile range of the Antarctic ice sheet component in AR6 was derived using a p-box approach across multiple lines of evidence, taking a conservative view on the overall uncertainty (Fox-Kemper et al 2021, Slangen et al 2023).…”

Section: Treatment Of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The uncertainties for this component are very similar for UKCP18 and AR6, which would seem to explain why the total uncertainty is also similar between the two sets of projections. Slangen et al (2023) suggested that the reduction in uncertainty for the glaciers and Greenland components in AR6 compared to AR5 is a reflection of the constrained temperature projections used as input to the land-ice emulators, as well as an improved evidence base.…”

Section: Comparison Of Global Mean Sea-level (Gmsl) Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In IPCC reports, calibrated language is used to describe quantified uncertainty using imprecise probability terms, where likely characterises the central two-thirds of the probability distribution, for a given scenario with medium confidence (Kopp et al 2022). In AR5, the likely range of sea-level projections was presented as the 5th to 95th percentile range with about two-thirds chance of sea level falling within the presented range, whereas in AR6, the likely range had at least two-thirds probability 'encompassing the outer 17th to 83rd percentiles of the probability distributions considered in a p-box (Le Cozannet et al 2017)' as described in Slangen et al (2023). The central range of UKCP sea-level projections was presented as the 5th to 95th percentile range of the model ensemble, aligning with previous IPCC reports, yet had distinct definitions (see section 2.1.4).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

The evolution of UK sea-level projections

Weeks

Fung²,

Harrison³

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Commun.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The methods used to generate process-based global and local mean sea-level projections have evolved substantially over the last fifteen years, including improved process understanding, advances in ice-sheet modelling, the use of emulators and further development of high-end scenarios. During this time, two sets of UK national sea-level projections have been generated as part of the UK Climate Projections in 2009 (UKCP09; Lowe et al, 2009) and in 2018 (UKCP18; Palmer et al., 2018b). UKCP18 presented local mean sea-level projections for the UK coastline for the 21st century rooted in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and in methods used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), with an emulator-based methodology to provide extended projections to 2300 (Palmer et al, 2018a; 2020).We compare UKCP18 global and local mean sea-level projections with those presented in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, IPCC 2021a). We find the likely range projections (characterising the central two-thirds of the distribution) are broadly similar at 2150 to within 0.1 m, except at Edinburgh, where the maximum difference is 0.22 m under medium emissions. Differences arise due to higher contributions from sterodynamic processes and the Antarctic ice sheet, and higher or lower vertical land movement, in AR6 compared to UKCP18. We also compare high-end sea-level rise estimates, presented in AR6 and UKCP09, finding reasonable global and UK local agreement over the 21st century.We explore future paths for UK sea-level science considering both user needs for information and developments in modelling capability. Future UK sea-level projections would benefit from updated high-end sea-level rise scenarios which extend beyond 2100 and continued efforts to build understanding of observed sea-level change drivers. Alongside close collaboration with user groups this would enhance the utility of local sea-level projections by UK coastal practitioners and decision-makers.

show abstract

Section: Evolution Of Global Mean Sea-level (Gmsl) Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Scientific Confidence In Understanding and Projecting Sea-le...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Treatment Of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Comparison Of Global Mean Sea-level (Gmsl) Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The evolution of UK sea-level projections

Weeks

Fung²,

Harrison³

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Commun.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Regional Resilience and Dependence on Tourism in a Changing Climate

Samora-Arvela,

Pinto,

Panagopoulos

et al. 2024

Advances in Spatial Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Coastal futures: New framings, many questions, some ways forward

Spencer¹,

Adams²,

Tissier³

et al. 2023

Camb. prisms Coast. futures

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Although coasts are frequently seen as at the frontline of near-future environmental risk, there is more to the understanding of the future of coastal environments than a simple interaction between increasing hazards (particularly related to global sea level rise) and increasing exposure and vulnerability of coastal populations. The environment is both multi-hazard and regionally differentiated, and coastal populations, in what should be seen as a coupled social–ecological–physical system, are both affected by, and themselves modify, the impact of coastal dynamics. As the coupled dance between human decisions and coastal environmental change unfolds over the coming decades, transdisciplinary approaches will be required to come to better decisions on identifying and following sustainable coastal management pathways, including the promotion of innovative restoration activities. Inputs from indigenous knowledge systems and local communities will be particularly important as these stakeholders are crucial actors in the implementation of ecosystem-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

show abstract

The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond

Cited by 19 publications

References 106 publications

The evolution of UK sea-level projections

The evolution of UK sea-level projections

Regional Resilience and Dependence on Tourism in a Changing Climate

Coastal futures: New framings, many questions, some ways forward

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About