(2012), Afternoon rain more likely over drier soils, Nature, 489(7416), 423-426 (10.1038/nature11377) Land surface properties influence the partition of radiative energy between latent and sensible heat fluxes during daytime. A climatically important process during dry periods is the impact of soil water deficit on limiting evapotranspiration, leading to increased surface heating of the lower atmosphere 1-2 . Soil moisture can influence the development of convective storms through modification of low level atmospheric temperature and humidity 1,3 , which in turn feeds back on soil moisture. There is considerable uncertainty in how soil moisture affects convective storms across the world, due to both a lack of observational evidence and uncertainty in large-scale models 4 . Here we present the first global-scale observational analysis of the coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. This shows that across all six continents studied, afternoon rain falls preferentially over soils which are relatively dry compared to the surrounding area. The signal emerges most clearly in the observations over semi-arid regions, where surface fluxes are sensitive to soil moisture and convective events are frequent. We find no evidence in our analysis of a positive feedback i.e. preference for rain over wetter soils, at the 50-100 km scale studied. In contrast, our analysis of six state-of-the-art global weather and climate models demonstrates the dominance of a positive feedback of soil moisture on simulated precipitation. These results suggest a fundamental weakness in the sensitivity of convection to the land surface in large-scale models, which may contribute to excessive simulated droughts.Soil moisture influences precipitation on a range of time and space scales 5 . In drought-affected continental regions, weak evapo-transpiration leads to reduced atmospheric moisture content over a period of days, potentially suppressing subsequent precipitation 6 . When soil moisture anomalies are extensive, surface-induced perturbations to the atmospheric heat budget may modify synoptic scale circulations 2 , in turn affecting moisture advection from the oceans 7 . On smaller scales, the development of convective clouds and precipitation can be influenced by local surface fluxes over the course of the day 1,3 . Theoretical considerations [8][9] suggest that, in an undisturbed atmosphere, the likelihood and sign of a surface feedback will be determined by the atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity. Thus one might expect regional variations in the strength and sign of convective sensitivity to soil moisture [10][11] . Mesoscale soil moisture variability can also influence the feedback via the development of daytime circulations 12 , which provide additional convergence to trigger convection [13][14] .There have been a number of studies examining the impact of the land surface on observed rainfall in different regions of the world. Analyses in Illinois 15 and West Africa 16 have indicated positive correlations between ...