The Evolutionary Demography of the Fertility-Mortality Quasi-Equilibrium

Carey, Arlen D.; Lopreato, Joseph

doi:10.2307/2137752

Cited by 27 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…(4) See also Davis (1963). On some of the social, economic and psychological mechanisms which might help to re-establish some rough measure of equilibrium, see, for example, Carey and Lopreato (1995) and Cleland (2001). (5) It is generally believed that the only other phenomenon in human experience that might possibly be termed a`demographic transition' (that which occurred around the time of the Neolithic revolution) probably involved a rise in the birth rate as a lagged response to a rise in the death rate (see Coale, 1975).…”

Section: Notesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A partial theory of world development: the neglected role of the demographic transition in the shaping of modern society

Dyson

2001

International Journal of Population Geography

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This paper argues that the demographic transition has been central to the creation of the modern world, and that its role in this respect has generally been underestimated. The paper proposes a partial, causal theory ± operating at the`super-macro' level, and over the very long run ± for several major aspects of world`development'. Key elements of the argument are that sustained mortality decline causes both urbanisation and fertility decline. In turn, urbanisation leads inevitably to an increased division of labour and the wider distribution of political power in society. Fertility and mortality decline contribute to reduced gender differentiation and women become more like men. Population ageing probably contributes to the rise of modern democracy. Unless development theory puts the demographic transition at its core, it cannot adequately account for key social±structural transformations which are integral to the concept of development.

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Section: Notesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A partial theory of world development: the neglected role of the demographic transition in the shaping of modern society

Dyson

2001

International Journal of Population Geography

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“…We identify it as such because the theory assumes that fertility is all about maximizing inclusive fitness rather than economic benefits. The authors of this theory, Carey and Lopreato (1995), argue that the main determinant of the level of fertility is the level of mortality. According to them, humans have evolved a "two-survivingchildren psychology" in which they gear their total fertility to the frequency with which offspring survive to adulthood.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition: Testing three theories with cross-national data

Sanderson

Dubrow

2000

Popul Environ

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This study uses aggregate data on a large number of the world's societies to test three theories of fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition. One prominent theory relates fertility decline to the changing economic value of children. With industrialization and overall modernization the economic value of children's labor shifts from positive to negative. This interpretation has been challenged by those who claim that the flow of wealth in preindustrial societies is always from parent to child rather than from child to parent. An alternative interpretation is that fertility levels reflect people's efforts to promote their reproductive success, and that this requires the careful tracking of infant and child mortality. Fertility rates are adjusted to the rate of infant and child survival, and will be high when survival rates are low and low when survival rates are high. A third theory emphasizes female empowerment. Fertility will be high when women are highly subordinated to men, but as women gain more autonomy and control over their own lives they reduce their fertility levels because, among other possibilities, higher levels of fertility present them with serious burdens. We tested all three theories through multiple regression analyses performed on two samples of societies, the first a large sample of the world's nation-states during the period between 1960 and 1990, and the second a sample of now-developed societies between 1880 and 1940. Our findings showed that infant mortality was an excellent predictor of fertility, and that female empowerment was a good predictor. However, there was only weak support for the argument that the economic value of children's labor plays an important role in fertility decisions. The findings were discussed in the context of a broader interpretation of fertility behavior in societies with high levels of industrialization and modernization.

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“…Preferences for two-child families (Carey and Lopreato 1995; Morita et al 2015; Sobotka and Beaujouan 2014) and a disinclination to produce an only child are well established (Blake 1974) and fit well with these findings. In addition, these patterns show that more people reproduce and have at least one child than would be expected on the basis of a Poisson process with such a low mean.…”

Section: Descriptive Analysis Of Reproductive Patternsmentioning

confidence: 59%

“…It seems possible that the transition to parities above two is much less dependent on resources and that other influences, such as decisions made by those in an individual’s social network or other idiosyncratic factors gain prominence (e.g., Angrist and Evans 1998; Balbo and Barban 2014). In other words, economic factors may influence the desired goal of two children (Carey and Lopreato 1995; Morita et al 2012; Sobotka and Beaujouan 2014), whereas the desire for higher parities may be more strongly influenced by noneconomic factors. As an example, families are more likely to have a third child when the first two children are of the same sex (Angrist and Evans 1998).…”

Section: Longitudinal Analysis Of the Association Between Wealth And mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Reproductive Ecology of Industrial Societies, Part II

Stulp

Sear

Schaffnit

et al. 2016

Hum Nat

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Studies of the association between wealth and fertility in industrial populations have a rich history in the evolutionary literature, and they have been used to argue both for and against a behavioral ecological approach to explaining human variability. We consider that there are strong arguments in favor of measuring fertility (and proxies thereof) in industrial populations, not least because of the wide availability of large-scale secondary databases. Such data sources bring challenges as well as advantages, however. The purpose of this article is to illustrate these by examining the association between wealth and reproductive success in the United States, using the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979. We conduct a broad-based exploratory analysis of the relationship between wealth and fertility, employing both cross-sectional and longitudinal approaches, and multiple measures of both wealth (income and net worth) and fertility (lifetime reproductive success and transitions to first, second and third births). We highlight the kinds of decisions that have to be made regarding sample selection, along with the selection and construction of explanatory variables and control measures. Based on our analyses, we find a positive effect of both income and net worth on fertility for men, which is more pronounced for white men and for transitions to first and second births. Income tends to have a negative effect on fertility for women, while net worth is more likely to positively predict fertility. Different reproductive strategies among different groups within the same population highlight the complexity of the reproductive ecology of industrial societies. These results differ in a number of respects from other analyses using the same database. We suggest this reflects the impossibility of producing a definitive analysis, rather than a failure to identify the “correct” analytical strategy. Finally, we discuss how these findings inform us about (mal)adaptive decision-making.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12110-016-9272-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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The Evolutionary Demography of the Fertility-Mortality Quasi-Equilibrium

Cited by 27 publications

References 48 publications

A partial theory of world development: the neglected role of the demographic transition in the shaping of modern society

A partial theory of world development: the neglected role of the demographic transition in the shaping of modern society

Fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition: Testing three theories with cross-national data

The Reproductive Ecology of Industrial Societies, Part II

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