The exploration of economic crises: parameter uncertainty and predictive ability

Inekwe, John Nkwoma

doi:10.1111/sjpe.12199

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…There is less consensus, however, concerning the signs and the relative importance of these variables in explaining the episodes of default. With the rise in the likelihood of defaults on sovereign debts, the body of research examining the potential determinants of default on sovereign borrowing and its associated costs continue to grow (see, Müller, Storesletten and Zilibotti, 2016; Reinhart and Trebesch, 2016; Inekwe, 2018, 2019a).…”

Section: Overview Of the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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Convergence in Sovereign Debt Defaults: Quantifying the Roles of Institutions

Bhattacharya

Inekwe

2021

Oxf Bull Econ Stat

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In this study, using an ex ante measure, we examine the convergence patterns in sovereign defaults among 101 developing countries for the period from 1990 to 2015. We employ the club convergence algorithm to determine convergence paths across countries and examine the role of institutions in shaping the observed convergence patterns. The merging of clubs reveals three distinct convergent sub‐clubs. Countries in each of these sub‐clubs tend to exhibit a similar pattern of long‐run convergence in cases of sovereign debt default. Countries with better institutions are less likely to belong to a club with greater risks of sovereign defaults by 7% points. Unlike trade openness, levels of external debt, inflation and current account balance increase the probability of default in these economies.

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Section: Overview Of the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…to grow (see, Müller, Storesletten and Zilibotti, 2016;Reinhart and Trebesch, 2016;Inekwe, 2018Inekwe, , 2019a.…”

Section: Overview Of the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Convergence in Sovereign Debt Defaults: Quantifying the Roles of Institutions

Bhattacharya

Inekwe

2021

Oxf Bull Econ Stat

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“…Ketidakpastian adalah kondisi yang dihadapi, apabila masa yang akan datang mengandung sejumlah kemungkinan peristiwa yang akan terjadi yang tidak kita ketahui (Inekwe, 2018). Dalam ketidakpastian semua kemungkinan dapat terjadi.…”

Section: Kinerja Bisnis Dalam Kondisi Ketidakpastianunclassified

“…Ketidakpastian ditandai kurangnya informasi, dan pengetahuan dalam pengambilan keputusan. Ketidakpastian meliputi (Inekwe, 2018): ketidakpastian lingkungan makro, ketidakpastian persaingan, ketidakpastian pasar, dan ketidakpastian teknologi. Ketidakpastian lingkungan makro meliputi kondisi politik, regulasi, undangundang, ekonomi dan lingkungan seperti bencana alam.…”

Section: Kinerja Bisnis Dalam Kondisi Ketidakpastianunclassified

Fleksibilitas Keuangan melalui Manajemen Modal Kerja pada Perusahaan Manufaktur dalam Kondisi Ketidakpastian

Purwanto¹

2021

JAP

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Changes in the business environment are increasingly dynamic, uncertain and unpredictable. Financial flexibility through working capital management is important for either a survival strategy, adaptive or proactive in taking advantage of opportunities for change. This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of working capital management on company profitability under uncertainty. The research design was carried out in a natural laboratory during the uncertainty period of the 2008 global financial crisis. The study was conducted by comparing working capital management and performance of 106 manufacturing companies based on data from the Indonesia Capital Market Directory around the crisis period (2007-2011). Data analysis used multiple linear regression. The effect of the financial crisis is analyzed through simulation analysis. The results of the study found that the more conservative working capital policy for investment has a positive effect on profitability performance, while the greater the short-term liabilities become an obstacle to profitability performance. However, the effect of working capital policies for financing changed during the crisis period. The proportion of working capital to finance short-term debt has a positive effect on profitability performance in crisis conditions. The results of this study have implications for the role of working capital policies for financial flexibility under conditions of crisis and uncertainty. Keywords: Financial Flexibility, Working Capital, Uncertainty

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“…Inekwe (2018a) andInekwe (2018b) find that regulation is an indispensable factor for the control of episodes of financial crises.…”

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confidence: 99%

Financial integration and banking crisis. A critical analysis of restrictions on capital flows

Inekwe

Valenzuela²

2019

World Economy

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We investigate the effect of financial integration on a banking crisis. In contrast to existing works, we allow for capital restrictions while studying the impact of financial integration on a banking crisis. Using firm‐level lending and borrowing information in the global market of syndicated loans; we generate aggregate measures of financial integration and examine how countries with capital flow restrictions thrive in the wake of a banking crisis. We concentrate on basic network measures of integration for a panel of 62 countries that allow for capital restriction at any time within the sample period. Financial integration increases the incidence of a banking crisis, and capital restrictions worsen a banking crisis. However, capital restrictions reduce the negative impact of financial integration on the incidence of a banking crisis. Thus, financial integration becomes beneficial when countries allow for some forms of capital control.

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The exploration of economic crises: parameter uncertainty and predictive ability

Cited by 9 publications

References 63 publications

Convergence in Sovereign Debt Defaults: Quantifying the Roles of Institutions

Convergence in Sovereign Debt Defaults: Quantifying the Roles of Institutions

Fleksibilitas Keuangan melalui Manajemen Modal Kerja pada Perusahaan Manufaktur dalam Kondisi Ketidakpastian

Financial integration and banking crisis. A critical analysis of restrictions on capital flows

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