The Export Supply Response of Mangoes: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of major factors on the export of mangoes from Pakistan. We use a cointegration approach and error correction mechanism applied to data for the period 1970–2005. Mango exports are regressed against the index of relative prices of mango exports (2000 = 100), the quantity of domestic mango production, real agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), the length of all-weather roads, and international standardization, i.e., the impact of the World Trade Organization agreement. The results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveal that all the data series are I(1). Applying Johansen’s test shows that the highest elasticity coefficients are found for mango production in the short and long run, followed by real agricultural GDP. The Granger causality test points to the bi-directional causality of mango exports with the relative price index and allweather roads, and unidirectional causality with real agricultural GDP and mango production. The study recommends promoting proper orchard management, developing the appropriate infrastructure, and stabilizing export prices to increase mango exports from Pakistan.

Competitiveness of citrus export and its determinants: a two-way fixed effect panel data model approach

“…This underscores the importance of targeting highincome markets and understanding the role of economic size and purchasing power in driving export demand for Pakistani citrus. This result is consistent with findings of previous studies (1,5,8,29).…”

“…Thus, any increase in the price of Pakistani citrus reduce its demand in the importing countries. This result is consistent with findings of Haleem et al ( 1 ) whereas the result is in contradiction with findings of Ghafoor et al ( 29 ).…”