Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event.dinosaurs | evolution | speciation | phylogeny | Bayesian methods N onavian dinosaurs met their demise suddenly, coincident with the Chicxulub impact in Mexico around 66 Mya; however, whether there was any long-term trend toward declining diversity leading to the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary has been controversial and debated for decades (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14). This longstanding dispute has been prolonged partly because of differences in fossil datasets from different parts of the world and difficulties in rock dating but most importantly, methodological weaknesses-previous attempts have been nonphylogenetic, and analyses were conducted on simple time-binned tabulated data, resulting in a lack of statistical rigor (phylogenetic and temporal nonindependence have not been considered), and did not truly investigate evolutionary dynamics, such as speciation and extinction rates. In fact, patterns of speciation and extinction in dinosaurs have gone largely unstudied (8). Here, we study speciation dynamics (relationship between speciation and extinction rates) using an exclusively phylogenetic approach in a Bayesian framework.If speciation and extinction rate were constant (but speciation was higher), we would expect to see a linear increase through time in the logarithm of the number of speciation events along each path of a phylogenetic tree (linear) (Materials and Methods and Fig. 1, model A). If speciation rate decreased through time but remained above extinction rate, then we would expect a curvilinear relationship (Fig. 1, models B and C). Such a relationship would reach an asymptote ...