The Eyes of the Needles: A Sequential Model of Union Organizing Drives, 1999--2004

Abstract

This paper models three stages of the union organizing drive, using a newdataset covering more than 22,000 drives that took place between 1999 and2004. The correlated sequential model tracks drives through all of theirpotential stages: holding an election, winning an election, and reachingfirst contracts. Only one-seventh of organizing drives that filed anelection petition with the NLRB managed to reach a first contract within ayear of certification. The model, which controls for the endogeneity ofunfair labor practice (ULP) charges, finds that a ULP charge was associatedwith a 30% smaller cumulative chance of reaching such a contract. ULPcharges had less effect on the votes cast than on the decision to hold anelection and the ability to reach a first contract. A sequential model suchas this one could be extended to test between some competing theories aboutthe determinants of union organizing.

Accounting for Greenfield Union Organizing Outcomes

“…In particular, previous approaches have often defined greenfield organizing ‘success’ or ‘failure’ in terms of whether or not bargaining rights are established (see Bronfenbrenner, , for a seminal study). Factors influencing ‘success’ or ‘failure’ have primarily been identified as variations in organizing campaign tactics (see Bronfenbrenner ; Ferguson ; Heery et al . ; Lynn and Brister ).…”

Racial Diversity and Union Organizing in the United States, 1999–2008

“…First, they reinforce the argument that contemporary union organizing is better understood as a multistage organizational process than as a discrete instance of collective action (Ferguson 2008). Focusing solely on representation elections skews our understanding of labor union formation, given the multiple opportunities for failure and self-selection inherent in the process.…”

“…Because employer UlPs have a much stronger impact on the probability that the petition will be withdrawn than on the election results (Ferguson 2008), more aggressive employer responses to work groups that are more diverse may help to account for the higher failure rates of organizing campaigns among these groups.…”

“…The substantive pattern of results did not change in these models. 8 To determine how many of the organizing drives were associated with UlP charges, I matched these 7,921 records with the nlRB's complaint cases, following a procedure similar to the one employed in Ferguson (2008). The representation-case record has fields in which nlRB staff can note corresponding UlP charges; similarly, the complaint-case record has fields for related representation cases.…”

“…Unions have tried to revamp their organizing routines, focusing as much on convincing employers not to resist the union's efforts as on mustering votes among the workers themselves (voss and sherman 2000;Martin 2008a). These shifts in employer and union tactics mean that many organizing drives are decided before workers ever get to express their preferences (Ferguson 2008). yet the role that racial diversity has on those organizational actors, who can clearly influence such campaigns, has largely been ignored.…”