The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model

Abstract

Over the past six decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socioeconomic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contraceptives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at altering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually. (JEL J10, J13, J18, J24, O15, Z13)

Censorship, Family Planning, and the Historical Fertility Transition

“…Grief applied theories of social norms to understand the institutions that supported early trade in the Mediterranean (Greif, 1994(Greif, , 2006. More recently, theories of social norms have been applied to understand fertility patterns, in studies such as Munshi & Myaux (2006), Fernandez & Fogli (2009), Spolaore & Wacziarg (2019) and de Silva & Tenreyro (2018).…”

Women's employment and fertility in a global perspective (1960–2015)

“…3 Globally, women make up about 40% of the world’s workforce, including an increasing number of women in low- and middle-income countries, especially in agriculture, manufacturing, and service sectors ( ILO 2015 ). Over a similar time period, there have also been important changes in global fertility patterns, including falls in total fertility rates (TFRs) in most major regions of the world ( de Silva and Tenreyro Forthcoming ; Dorius 2008 ; Morgan 2003 ; Wilson 2001 ). Estimates suggest that global TFR fell from about 5 in 1960 to just under 2.5 in 2015, representing a staggering transformation in global fertility trends ( de Silva and Tenreyro Forthcoming ).…”

Evaluation of sperm integrin α5β1 as a potential marker of fertility in humans

“…Male infertility of unknown origin is a condition in which fertility impairment occurs spontaneously or with idiopathic cause [ 3 , 4 , 29 ]. In these situations, proteomic and metabolomic techniques can be applied to explore potential biomarkers for the prognosis of male infertility [ 30 ].…”