The Faster Growth of Larger, Less Crowded Locations

Abstract

ver the past few decades, the population and employment of small and large locations in the United States have been diverging. Most of the smallest locations in the United States-the approximate 1,200 counties and micropolitan areas with a population below 25,000-saw declining population and employment from 2000 to 2017 as their residents and jobs migrated to larger, more prosperous locations. Conversely, almost all medium and large metropolitan areas in the United States-those with a population of 500,000 or moresaw increasing population and employment from 2000 to 2017, many at well above the national rate. An important question is whether this divergence between small and large locations has been driven by size itself. One possibility is that the benefits of size have become greater over time. For example, businesses may increasingly benefit from being near suppliers. Likewise, households may increasingly value access to services and amenities that are only available in larger locations. Alternatively, the divergence may be driven by characteristics that are correlated with size but not inherent to it. For example, the slower growth of smaller locations may simply reflect their disproportionate specialization in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, which have seen declining employment. In this article, I document the faster population and employment growth of medium and large metropolitan areas compared with smaller locations. Among these smaller locations-rural counties, micropolitan The Faster Growth of Larger, Less Crowded Locations

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