The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain

Abstract

Mediterranean high-mountain endemic species are particularly vulnerable to climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and snow-cover dynamics. Sierra Nevada (Spain) is a biodiversity hotspot in the western Mediterranean, with an enormous plant species richness and endemicity. Moehringia fontqueri is a threatened endemic plant restricted to north-facing siliceous rocks along a few ridges of the eastern Sierra Nevada. To guide conservation actions against climate change effects, here we propose the simultaneous assessment of the current reproductive success and the possible species’ range changes between current and future climatic conditions, assessing separately different subpopulations by altitude. Reproductive success was tested through the seed-set data analysis. The species' current habitat suitability was modeled in Maxent using species occurrences, topographic, satellite and climatic variables. Future habitat suitability was carried out for two climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). The results showed the lowest reproductive success at the lowest altitudes, and vice versa at the highest altitudes. Habitat suitability decreased by 80% from current conditions to the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5). The lowest subpopulations were identified as the most vulnerable to climate change effects while the highest ones were the nearest to future suitable habitats. Our simultaneous assessment of reproductive success and habitat suitability aims to serve as a model to guide conservation, management and climate change mitigation strategies through adaptive management to safeguard the persistence of the maximum genetic pool of Mediterranean high-mountain plants threatened by climate change.

Linaria sagrensis (Plantaginaceae), a new high mountain species from the SE Iberian Peninsula

“…This is compelling evidence that the cooler, wetter regions offer the optimal conditions for promoting new tree growth. In the same way, Mendoza-Fernández et al (2022) have shown that for Moehringia fontqueri Pau [now Arenaria suffruticosa Fior and P.O. Karis (cf.…”

Climate change effects on Peruvian Lomas plant distribution

“…High-elevation species are particularly vulnerable, as they exhibit lower photosynthetic acclimation to warmer temperatures than plants from lower elevations (Hernández-Fuentes et al, 2023). Similarly, endemics identi ed by various studies in the Mediterranean and Alpine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their small and fragmented populations, reducing habitat suitability and reproductive success (González-Mancebo, 2022; Mendoza-Fernández et al, 2022). Despite global studies on climate change effects, extensive research is urgently needed to understand the speci c impacts of climate change on the Peruvian Lomas ecosystem.…”

Spatial distribution of insular cliff vegetation and future scenarios in a climate change perspective

“…The use of ENM contributes to define which are the most important areas to conserve or manage. For instance, Mendoza-Fernández et al (2022) found that populations found in low elevations were threatened and required conservation strategies when ecological niche models were adjusted at high elevations. In this sense, short-term measures must be taken in low-elevation areas rather than mountain summits, where habitat is supposed to be adequate in the future.…”