The fate of governing parties in times of economic crisis

LeDuc, Lawrence; Pammett, Jon H.

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2013.05.022

Cited by 37 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Given that economic policies are developed at national level, it is comprehensible that citizens put the blame on national governments for poor economic performance. This intuition has been supported by many studies on economic voting that have demonstrated this tends to be the case (see Lewis‐Beck, ; Van der Brug et al ., ; Duch and Stevenson, ) – and the economic crisis has been no exception (Lewis‐Beck et al ., ; LeDuc and Pammett, ; Lewis‐Beck and Whitten, ).…”

Section: Theory and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Economy Strikes Back: Support for the EU during the Great Recession

Gómez

2014

J of Common Market Studies

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This article looks at the role of economic conditions in shaping people's attitudes to the EU during the Great Recession. In contrast with previous research, findings suggest that in this particular instance support for the EU across Member States was affected by economic factors. In particular, both higher unemployment and higher interest rates were strongly associated with lower levels of support. Findings also suggest that young Europeans responded more strongly to adverse economic conditions during the crisis. Even though young citizens tend to have more positive attitudes towards the EU than older people, this difference has been significantly reduced in contexts of higher interest rates.

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Section: Theory and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Economy Strikes Back: Support for the EU during the Great Recession

Gómez

2014

J of Common Market Studies

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“…Building on a large literature that shows voter ascriptions of responsibility matter (e.g. de Vries, Edwards, & Tilman, 2011;Hellwig & Coffey, 2011;Marsh & Tilley, 2009;Tilley & Hobolt, 2011), we expect this change of calculus to be driven by a mixture of factors including that governments in power at the time of the GFC hit had been dismissed in many countries (LeDuc & Pammett, 2013), the initial shock of the GFC had dissipated with voters now well accustomed to the economic realities post-crisis, and voters by this point were now adjudicating on their government's response to the economic crisis, as much as responding to the economic context themselves. Thus, we expect the more a government is perceived to be responsible for economic performance, the stronger economic voting will be.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Support came with the proviso that these countries would implement a series of austere economic measures, including salary cuts and reduced public services. Austerity became the economic orthodoxy of most member states with the GFC also having a number of political repercussions including the ejection from office of many governments in power at the time the GFC hit (LeDuc & Pammett, 2013), the development of new anti-establishment political movements across Europe, and a dampening of enthusiasm towards the EU (Treib, 2014). Taken together, all of this ensured the economy has been the dominant preoccupation of both citizens and governments alike over the past eight years and in this context, it is reasonable to assume economics has been a key issue, if not the key issue, on voters' minds as they went to the ballot box during this period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections

Okolikj

Quinlan

2016

PaG

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Using the 2009 and 2014 European Election Studies (EES), we explore the effect of the economy on the vote in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament (EP) elections. The paper demonstrates that the economy did influence voters in both contests. However, its impact was heterogeneous across the two elections and between countries. While assessments of the economy directly motivated voters in 2009 by 2014 economic appraisals were conditioned by how much responsibility voters felt the national government had for the state of the economy, implying a shift in calculus between the two elections. The analysis suggests that voters in 2009 were simply reacting to the economic tsunami that was the Global Financial Crisis, with motivations primarily driven by the unfavourable economic conditions countries faced. But in 2014, evaluations were conditioned by judgments about responsibility for the economy, suggesting a more conscious holding to account of the government. Our paper also reveals cross-country differences in the influence of the economy on vote. Attribution of responsibility and economic evaluations had a more potent impact on support for the government in bailout countries compared to non-bailout countries in 2014. Our findings demonstrate the importance of economy on vote in EP elections but also highlight how its impact on vote can vary based on context.

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“…For example, Nezi () shows that in Greece, incumbents had no chance of winning elections during the height of its economic crisis. Presenting comparative data, however, LeDuc and Pammett () conclude that since the electoral losses during the Great Recession were not significantly higher than those during the previous election period, the latter's impact on the political fortunes of parties across Europe should not be overstated.…”

Section: Economy and Election Outcomesmentioning

confidence: 97%

Political Blackmail, Institutional Infighting, and Electoral Politics: The Fate of Governing Parties during the Great Recession (2008‐12) in Romania and Bulgaria

Kostadinova

Giurcanu

2015

Politics & Policy

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Center‐right parties in government in Romania and Bulgaria navigated the economic downturns associated with the Great Recession (2008‐12), and introduced austerity policies, yet had different electoral fates. While in Romania, the Democratic Liberal Party experienced a dramatic loss at the December 2012 elections, in Bulgaria, the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria topped the May 2013 vote. In this article, we analyze these divergent outcomes, taking into account institutional configurations, strength of governing parties, and economic conditions. We argue that the electoral effects of harsh economic policies are conditioned by differences in the institutional aspect of governmental “clarity of responsibility” during the peaks of the recession. These differences in institutional clarity become then key factors in understanding the electoral fates of the center‐right parties in these governments. Related Articles Related Media Al JazeeraEnglish. . “Bulgaria Elections Gripped by Deadlock.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JY8HvL5Bb5Q DW (English). . “Corruption Big Issue in Romanian Elections | Journal Reporters.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhmYhAP0zak

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The fate of governing parties in times of economic crisis

Cited by 37 publications

References 9 publications

The Economy Strikes Back: Support for the EU during the Great Recession

The Economy Strikes Back: Support for the EU during the Great Recession

Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections

Political Blackmail, Institutional Infighting, and Electoral Politics: The Fate of Governing Parties during the Great Recession (2008‐12) in Romania and Bulgaria

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