The feasibility of short‐term production strategies for renewable jet fuels – a comprehensive techno‐economic comparison

Jong, Sierk de; Hoefnagels, Ric; Faaij, André; Slade, Raphael; Mawhood, Rebecca; Junginger, Martin

doi:10.1002/bbb.1613

Cited by 236 publications

(257 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…A sensitivity analysis on bio‐based plants' CAPEX was also conducted. Economic analysis tends to underestimate the capital costs and overestimate the plant performance if compared with values observed for a first‐of‐a‐kind (pioneer) plant . An uncertainty range of −50% to 100% was therefore applied to the CAPEX of both bio‐based ethylene processes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bio‐ethylene from sugarcane as a competitiveness strategy for the Brazilian chemical industry

Souza

Rochedo

Bhardwaj³

et al. 2019

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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The urgency with which the world economy needs to be decarbonized could lead to the emergence of regions with the capacity to produce renewable feedstock such as biomass. The competitiveness of these regions could result from their ability to produce high value‐added chemicals at the lowest cost. The biomass embodied in a chemical product could reduce carbon emissions, leading to net CO2 removal. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that bio‐ethylene could make the Brazilian chemical industry more competitive. This would be achieved by applying the revenues from carbon credits associated with using ethanol and sugarcane bagasse as feedstocks for bio‐ethylene production. Three production routes were compared according to their estimated cost of production in Brazil under a simplified life‐cycle analysis: sugar‐cane‐derived ethanol to ethylene (with and without CO2 capture and storage – BECCS); bio‐methanol to olefin; and conventional steam cracking of naphtha. When associated with the production of long‐lasting materials, the ethanol‐to‐ethylene with BECCS route achieved the lower CO2 break‐even price (US$75/t CO2), followed by ethanol to ethylene without BECCS (US$82/t CO2) and bio‐methanol to ethylene (US$106/t CO2). Our findings highlight the advantage for the Brazilian chemical industry of implementing a national or, even better, a global carbon‐pricing instrument. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bio‐ethylene from sugarcane as a competitiveness strategy for the Brazilian chemical industry

Souza

Rochedo

Bhardwaj³

et al. 2019

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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“…The drop-in quota is based on several types of alternative fuels that have been certified according to ASTM D7566 (standard specification for aviation turbine fuels) [8]. The time to adjust production capacity for alternative jet fuels is derived from a production start-up schedule for renewable jet fuels given in de Jong et al and varied in order to take into account uncertainties [38]. Similarly, uncertainties related to the development of conventional jet fuel prices are taken into account by varying prices to grow at different growth rates of their past average.…”

Section: Data Base and Simulation Set Upmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation-Based Analysis of the Potential of Alternative Fuels towards Reducing CO2 Emissions from Aviation

et al. 2018

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Abstract:The mid-term framework of global aviation is shaped by air travel demand growth rates of 2-5% p.a. and ambitious targets to reduce aviation-related CO 2 emissions by up to 50% until 2050. Alternative jet fuels such as bio-or electrofuels can be considered as a potential means towards low-emission aviation. While these fuels offer significant emission reduction potential, their market success depends on manifold influencing factors like the maturity of the production technology or the development of the price of conventional jet fuel. To study the potential for adoption of alternative jet fuels in aviation and the extent to which alternative fuels can contribute to the reduction targets, we deploy a System Dynamics approach. The results indicate that the adoption of alternative fuels and therefore their potential towards low-emissions aviation is rather limited in most scenarios considered since current production processes do not allow for competitive prices compared to conventional jet fuel. This calls for the development of new production processes that allow for economic feasibility of converting biomass or hydrogen into drop-in fuels as well as political measures to promote the adoption of alternative fuels.

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“…The authors found that feedstock cost contributes the most to breakeven price, and that the breakeven price of middle distillate HEFA from YG and tallow was higher than petroleum-derived diesel fuel prices, but lower than the breakeven price of soybean oil HEFA. de Jong et al [28] compared six short-term renewable jet fuel pathways by combining possible feedstocks and technologies, as well as ten greenfield, three retro-fitting, and nine co-locating strategies. Their results showed that HEFA is the most competitive pathway in the short term.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production

Yao

Staples

Malina

et al. 2017

Biotechnol Biofuels

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BackgroundAlcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. This study assesses the ATJ biofuel production pathway for these three biomass feedstocks, and advances existing techno-economic analyses of biofuels in three ways. First, we incorporate technical uncertainty for all by-products and co-products though statistical linkages between conversion efficiencies and input and output levels. Second, future price uncertainty is based on case-by-case time-series estimation, and a local sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to each uncertain variable. Third, breakeven price distributions are developed to communicate the inherent uncertainty in breakeven price. This research also considers uncertainties in utility input requirements, fuel and by-product outputs, as well as price uncertainties for all major inputs, products, and co-products. All analyses are done from the perspective of a private firm.ResultsThe stochastic dominance results of net present values (NPV) and breakeven price distributions show that sugarcane is the lowest cost feedstock over the entire range of uncertainty with the least risks, followed by corn grain and switchgrass, with the mean breakeven jet fuel prices being $0.96/L ($3.65/gal), $1.01/L ($3.84/gal), and $1.38/L ($5.21/gal), respectively. The variation of revenues from by-products in corn grain pathway can significantly impact its profitability. Sensitivity analyses show that technical uncertainty significantly impacts breakeven price and NPV distributions.ConclusionsTechnical uncertainty is critical in determining the economic performance of the ATJ fuel pathway. Technical uncertainty needs to be considered in future economic analyses. The variation of revenues from by-products plays a significant role in profitability. With the distribution of breakeven prices, potential investors can apply whatever risk preferences they like to determine an appropriate bid or breakeven price that matches their risk profile.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13068-017-0702-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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The feasibility of short‐term production strategies for renewable jet fuels – a comprehensive techno‐economic comparison

Cited by 236 publications

References 62 publications

Bio‐ethylene from sugarcane as a competitiveness strategy for the Brazilian chemical industry

Bio‐ethylene from sugarcane as a competitiveness strategy for the Brazilian chemical industry

Simulation-Based Analysis of the Potential of Alternative Fuels towards Reducing CO2 Emissions from Aviation

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production

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