2023
DOI: 10.1002/jae.3003
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The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real‐time reliability tests

Josefine Quast,
Maik H. Wolters

Abstract: SummaryOutput gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real‐time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real‐time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in response to the global financial crisis in the final output gap, the improvement in real‐time reliability since the mid‐1990s is much smaller than found by Edge and Rudd (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016, 9… Show more

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