The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence

Rausch, Manuel K.; Zehetleitner, Michael

doi:10.1101/426635

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Previous modelling work has unraveled boundary conditions of this first diagnostic signature, the interaction between evidence strength and choice accuracy. Model simulations have shown that this interaction disappears if stimuli are only probabilistically related to choices 25 , and if the statistical model has knowledge about evidence strength on the single-trial level 26 . Remarkably, however, no previous work has unraveled the role of time in this signature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic expressions of confidence within an evidence accumulation framework

Desender

Donner

Verguts

2020

Preprint

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19Human observers can reliably report their confidence in the choices they make. An 20 influential framework conceptualizes decision confidence as the probability of a decision 21 being correct, given the choice made and the evidence on which it was based. This 22 framework accounts for three diagnostic signatures of human confidence reports, including 23 an opposite dependence of confidence on evidence strength for correct and error trials. 24However, the framework does not account for the temporal evolution of these signatures, 25because it only describes the transformation of a static evidence representation into choice 26 and the associated confidence. Here, we combine this framework with another influential 27 framework: the temporal accumulation of evidence towards decision bounds. We propose 28 that confidence at any point in time reflects the probability of being correct, given the choice 29and accumulated evidence up until that point. This model predicts a systematic time-30 dependence of all diagnostic signatures of decision confidence, most critically: an increase of 31 the opposite dependence of confidence on evidence strength and choice correctness with 32 time. We tested, and confirmed, these predictions in human subjects performing a random 33 dot motion discrimination task, in which confidence judgments were queried at different 34 points in time. We conclude that confidence reports track the temporal evolution of the 35 probability of being correct. 36 Author summary 37Humans are able to report a sense of confidence in the accuracy of a choice. An 38 influential framework states that confidence reflects the probability that a choice is correct. 39We combined human experimenting with computational modelling and extended this notion 40 in the time domain, thus to formally describe the dynamics of confidence. Both human data 41 and our model show that the sense of confidence depends on the point in time, at which it is 42 queried. We conclude that human confidence reports reflect the dynamics of the probability 43 of a choice being correct. 44

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic expressions of confidence within an evidence accumulation framework

Desender

Donner

Verguts

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Contributions of anterior cingulate cortex and basolateral amygdala to decision confidence and learning under uncertainty

et al. 2019

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The subjective sense of certainty, or confidence, in ambiguous sensory cues can alter the interpretation of reward feedback and facilitate learning. We trained rats to report the orientation of ambiguous visual stimuli according to a spatial stimulus-response rule that must be learned. Following choice, rats could wait a self-timed delay for reward or initiate a new trial. Waiting times increase with discrimination accuracy, demonstrating that this measure can be used as a proxy for confidence. Chemogenetic silencing of BLA shortens waiting times overall whereas ACC inhibition renders waiting times insensitive to confidence-modulating attributes of visual stimuli, suggesting contribution of ACC but not BLA to confidence computations. Subsequent reversal learning is enhanced by confidence. Both ACC and BLA inhibition block this enhancement but via differential adjustments in learning strategies and consistent use of learned rules. Altogether, we demonstrate dissociable roles for ACC and BLA in transmitting confidence and learning under uncertainty.

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The Neurobiology of Confidence: From Beliefs to Neurons

Ott

Masset

Kepecs

2018

Cold Spring Harb Symp Quant Biol

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How confident are you? As humans, aware of our subjective sense of confidence, we can readily answer. Knowing your level of confidence helps to optimize both routine decisions such as whether to go back and check if the front door was locked and momentous ones like finding a partner for life. Yet the inherently subjective nature of confidence has limited investigations by neurobiologists. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field and lay out a conceptual framework that lets us translate psychological questions about subjective confidence into the language of neuroscience. We show how statistical notions of confidence provide a bridge between our subjective sense of confidence and confidence-guided behaviors in nonhuman animals, thus enabling the study of the underlying neurobiology. We discuss confidence as a core cognitive process that enables organisms to optimize behavior such as learning or resource allocation and that serves as the basis of metacognitive reasoning. These approaches place confidence on a solid footing and pave the way for a mechanistic understanding of how the brain implements confidence-based algorithms to guide behavior.

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The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence

Cited by 4 publications

References 50 publications

Dynamic expressions of confidence within an evidence accumulation framework

Dynamic expressions of confidence within an evidence accumulation framework

Contributions of anterior cingulate cortex and basolateral amygdala to decision confidence and learning under uncertainty

The Neurobiology of Confidence: From Beliefs to Neurons

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