The forecasting of air transport passenger demands in Turkey by using novel meta‐heuristic algorithms

Abstract

The imbalance between modes of transport in our country appears as the most important problem. Therefore, in air transportation, which has a significant increasing trend, estimating the passenger demand with directly related parameters and novel algorithms is important for Turkey. In this study, different prediction models were developed applying for the first time with five different meta-heuristic algorithms which are Flower Pollination Algorithm (FPA), Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm (ABC), Crow Search Algorithm (CSA), Krill Herd Algorithm (KH), and the Butterfly Optimization Algorithm (BOA) to estimate Turkey's air transport demand. While developing the models, Fuel Price, Gross Domestic Product per Capita, Seat Capacity, and Annual Fuel Consumption were selected as the model parameters. Although each model developed using different approaches is applicable, quadratic and power models developed using CSA showed the highest performance. For this reason, future projections were based on these models. Air transport passenger demand was examined using two scenarios in a process until 2035. In the first scenario, according to model forms, Turkey's future air transport passenger demand will reach about 460 and 490 million passengers, respectively. In the second scenario, the number of passengers will reach approximately 375 and 660 million for quadratic and power models, respectively. The results of this study will contribute to the evaluation of the current investment plans and the development of strategic plans that will meet the demands. Additionally, they will help take necessary measures and introduce some necessary regulations to ensure the income and expense balance so that the efficiency of airline companies can be improved. K E Y W O R D Sair transport passenger demand, artificial bee colony algorithm, butterfly optimization algorithm, crow search algorithm, flower pollination algorithm, krill herd algorithm INTRODUCTIONAir transport is one of the most preferred modes of transport by passengers in the world and in Turkey because it provides important benefits such as safety, speed, and comfort. Air transport, which has a very important place in terms of trade and tourism development, also contributes to the social development and economic growth of countries.Air transport has shown a rapid development worldwide after the Second World War. The most important reasons for this progress are the development of aircraft production technology in the war years, the desire of the pilots to transform their skills to a commercial profit, and the desire of countries to undertake development ventures by rapidly erasing the negative traces of the war. For all these reasons, passenger and freight

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