The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project

Abstract

Horizon scanning is a method for detecting and interpreting the implications of emerging issues and other signals of change, both within and outside of an organization or field. Anticipating possible changes that may affect an organization is a first step toward strategic thinking, planning, and actions that can help prepare it for an uncertain future. Developing insight into emerging possible futures-or strategic foresight-can help decisionmakers respond proactively to seize opportunities and mitigate potential threats. Decisionmaking in forestry and other natural resource management fields has underutilized formal horizon scanning. The USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station's Strategic ForesightGroup recently worked with the University of Houston Foresight graduate program to design and implement a formal horizon scanning system for the agency, with the goal of increasing strategic foresight. The nine papers in this report summarize the early phases of this process and lessons learned. Among the topics are the development of a method to identify useful scanning sources pertinent to forest futures, ways to analyze scanning hits, and distinguishing between current and emerging issues for the Forest Service. Also discussed is the range of communication products generated to date by the project. The report contains the complete guide written for those volunteering to do the scanning. This collection will acquaint forest planners, managers, and policymakers with horizon scanning as an integral step in anticipating the consequences of potential change and making better decisions in a rapidly changing environment. Cover ArtSchematic of the horizon scanning process. Source: Hines and Bishop (2015), as cited in paper 1, this volume. Created by Maria Romero.The use of trade, firm, or corporation names in this publication is for the information and convenience of the reader. Such use does not constitute an official endorsement or approval by the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the Forest Service of any product or service to the exclusion of others that may be suitable. ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe compilers thank all the members of the horizon scanning team for their excellent work searching for signals of change that could help shape the future of forestry.

Drivers of change in forests and forestry

“…These futures can be influenced by myriad social, environmental, economic, and technological trends and events. Strategic foresight research often employs horizon scanning methods to identify weak signals of change that have the potential to influence future conditions (see Table 1 for explanations of some key strategic foresight terms [Bengston 2013, Hines et al 2019). There are also stronger, more overarching forces that have changed conditions in the past, are influencing the present, and are anticipated to continue to do so in the future.…”

“…This report explores eight drivers of change expected to influence forests and forestry in the United States over the next 20 years. The drivers were identified through a review of strategic foresight literature and projects, the USDA Forest Service (hereafter, Forest Service) Northern Research Station horizon scanning system (see Hines et al 2019), and iterative brainstorming by the Forest Service's Northern Research Station Strategic Foresight Group and partners. Thirteen drivers of change were initially identified: Indigenous rights, urbanization, demographic change, technological change, society's changing forest values, economy, forestry education, forest products sector, climate change, increasing disturbance, invasive species, fire, and water.…”