The Future of Biofuels in an Electrifying Global Transportation Sector: Imperative, Prospects and Challenges

Abstract

Low carbon alternatives are an imperative for decarbonizing the transportation sector. There is growing interest in electrification of transportation but even with aggressive growth in sales, a significant share of transportation is expected to rely on liquid fuel by midcentury. Biofuels are appealing as low carbon fuels but those produced from food crops generate a food vs. fuel dilemma. We discuss the prospects for expanding biofuels, while mitigating the competition with food production though a transition to second generation biofuels from biomass as well as the potential for biotechnology to transform the agricultural sector globally to increase crop productivity and make biofuels and food production complementary. We highlight the role for policy, technological innovations, and institutions to achieve increased food and biofuel production.There is a growing imperative to keep the rise in global temperature to less than 2 degrees centigrade by midcentury and for drastic emissions reduction. A major target of effort to achieve these goals is the transportation sector, which is a growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Between 1990 and 2016 global transportation emissions have increased by 32% and the sector accounted for 23% of the global GHG emissions in 2016. A dominant share of these emissions (74%) are from on-road vehicles (light-duty, medium-and heavy-duty), more than half of which are from V C The Author(s)

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