The future of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract

Concern about the future of Amazonian forests is growing as both the extent and rate of primary forest destruction increase. We combine spatial information on various biophysical, demographic and infrastructural factors in the Brazilian Amazon with satellite data on deforestation to evaluate the relative importance of each factor to deforestation in the region. We assess the sensitivity of results to alternative sampling methodologies, and compare our results to those of previous empirical studies of Amazonian deforestation. Our findings, in concert with those of previous studies, send a clear message to planners: both paved and unpaved roads are key drivers of the deforestation process. Proximity to previous clearings, high population densities, low annual rainfall, and long dry seasons also increase the likelihood that a site will be deforested; however, roads are consistently important and are the factors most amenable to policymaking. We argue that there is ample evidence to justify a fundamental change in current Amazonian development priorities if additional largescale losses of forests and environmental services are to be avoided. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Oil palm boom and land-use dynamics in Indonesia: The role of policies and socioeconomic factors

“…Each additional km of distance increases the village oil palm area by 10 ha and the forest area by 38 ha. The result for forest area is expected and in line with the literature showing that road infrastructure can contribute to deforestation (Kirby et al, 2006). Yet the effect for oil palm is somewhat surprising.…”

“…Part B of Table 4 shows that lagged road distance has a significantly positive effect on forest land in autochthonous villages, as already discussed above and in line with the deforestation literature (Kirby et al, 2006). However, the same effect is not observed in transmigrant villages where new settlements were deliberately established in remoter areas.…”

“…We further find that higher population density in the village 10 years ago entails less oil palm cultivation today (column 1), whereas the population effect on forest land is insignificant (column 3). This latter effect is interesting, because population pressure has often been identified as a driver of deforestation (e.g., Mertens et al, 2000;Kirby et al, 2006;Mena et al, 2006). However, DeFries et al (2010) pointed out that urban population growth and associated increases in the demand for agricultural products are probably more important drivers of deforestation than rural population growth.…”

Comunidades ribeirinhas como forma socioespacial de expressão urbana na Amazônia: uma tipologia para a região do Baixo Tapajós (Pará-Brasil)

“…As influências dos investimentos em infraestrutura e a pressão dos mercados para a produção agropecuária também foram considerados condicionantes para a conversão florestal da região (PFAFF;WALKER, 2010). Tais fatores são diretamente atribuídos à conectividade e resiliência proporcionadas pela presença de estradas (KIRBY et al, 2006;PFAFF et al, 2007;WEINHOLD;REIS, 2008;PERZ et al, 2012), ainda que o peso e o papel das estradas no debate sobre a conversão florestal precisam ser redimensionados (CAMARA et al, 2005).…”

Avaliação do desmatamento no estado de Rondônia entre 2001 e 2011

“…Por outro lado, a SEDAM implementa o mapeamento do desmatamento, tendo como base técnica a interpretação visual que, além de tomar mais tempo, é intérprete-dependente. (Pfaff, 1999;Kirby et al, 2006), linhas de créditos subsidiadas (Andersen & Reis, 1997), construção e pavimentação de estradas e outros investimentos em infraestrutura contribuem para o crescimento econômico da região e, consequentemente, para o aumento da probabilidade de uma área de floresta ser desmatada na Amazônia brasileira (Andersen & Reis, 1997;Kirby et al, 2006). Estes resultados são significativos, pois apresentam um crescimento substancial do desmatamento dentro de Unidades de Conservação de Uso Sustentável e Terras Indígenas, na última década.…”