The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der; Nelson, Gerald C.; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Élodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlík, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, Sergey; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; Meijl, Hans van; Lampe, Martin von; Willenbockel, Dirk

doi:10.1111/agec.12089

Cited by 459 publications

(334 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

318

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Without climate change, the agriculture-economic model projects an increase in global food availability of 289 kilocalories per person per day (kcal/cap/day) between the years 2010 and 2050 (10·3%); global fruit and vegetable consumption, net of food waste, is projected to increase by 35·8 grams per person per day (g/cap/day), and global red meat consumption, net of food waste, to increase by 3·9 g/cap/day. Consumption changes in terms of million tonnes per year are larger, agree with the current range of projections, 30 and are reported in Appendix A8.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 81%

“…A recent comparison of global economic models of agriculture showed a wide range of projections of production and consumption across models. 6,30 We used the harmonized scenario inputs developed for the comparison, and we adopted an economic model whose demand projections fell within the middle two quartiles of the range of model results. 30 This means that our economic analysis represents average economic impacts without economic uncertainty intervals.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…6,30 We used the harmonized scenario inputs developed for the comparison, and we adopted an economic model whose demand projections fell within the middle two quartiles of the range of model results. 30 This means that our economic analysis represents average economic impacts without economic uncertainty intervals. Adopting a suite of economic models would have allowed us to quantify the uncertainties related to projections of food demand.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

et al. 2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

et al. 2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…This middle-of-the-road scenario assumes a world population of nine billion people in 2050 and a global GDP that more than triples to 230 trillion US Dollars at 2005 prices and adjusted for purchasing power parity (USD_05 PPP) 29 . Population groups which gain in prosperity demand a more affluent diet with a higher share of livestock products 30 . Therefore, crop production for food and feed increases by more than 50% compared with 2010, mainly by intensifying existing cropland.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Crop residues can be recycled to soils, burned in the fields, used as feed or used as material 4 . The demand for food enters the model as an exogenous trajectory 4,30 . Demand for material consumption and production waste is assumed to grow over time in proportion to food demand, while the demand for seed is a fixed share of crop production 4 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution

et al. 2014

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102-156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36-76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded.

show abstract

Potential rise in iron deficiency due to future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions

2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Iron deficiency reduces capacity for physical activity, lowers IQ, and increases maternal and child mortality, impacting roughly a billion people worldwide. Recent studies have shown that certain highly consumed crops—C3 grains (e.g., wheat, rice, and barley), legumes, and maize—have lower iron concentrations of 4–10% when grown under increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (550 ppm). We examined diets in 152 countries globally (95.5% of the population) to estimate the percentage of lost dietary iron resulting from anthropogenic CO2 emissions between now and 2050, specifically among vulnerable age‐sex groups: children (1–5 years) and women of childbearing age (15–49 years), holding diets constant. We also cross‐referenced these with the current prevalence of anemia to identify most at‐risk countries. We found that 1.4 billion children aged 1–5 and women of childbearing age (59% of global total for these groups) live in high‐risk countries, where the prevalence of anemia exceeds 20% and modeled loss in dietary iron would be in the most severe tertile (>3.8%). The countries with the highest anemia prevalence also derive their iron from the fewest number of foods, even after excluding countries consuming large amounts of unaccounted wild‐harvest foods. The potential risk of increased iron deficiency adds greater incentive for mitigating anthropogenic CO2 emissions and highlights the need to address anticipated health impacts via improved health delivery systems, dietary behavioral changes, or agricultural innovation. Because these are effects on content rather than yield, it is unlikely that consumers will perceive this health threat and adapt to it without education.

show abstract

The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Abstract: Journal articleIFPRI3; ISI; CRP2EPTD; PIMPRCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

Cited by 459 publications

References 15 publications

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution

Potential rise in iron deficiency due to future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About