Summary
Background
The proportion of heterosexual HIV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa that occurs within cohabiting partnerships, as opposed to among single people, or in extra-couple relationships, is a subject of active debate. This question is of immediate importance. As plans to use antiretroviral drugs as a strategy for population-level prevention progress, understanding the importance of different transmission routes is critical to targeting intervention efforts.
Methods
We built a mechanistic HIV transmission model using data from Demographic and Health Surveys covering 27,201 cohabiting couples from 18 sub-Saharan African countries with information on couple duration, age at sexual debut, and HIV serostatus. We combined this model with estimates of HIV survival times and country-specific estimates of HIV prevalence and ART coverage. We then estimated the proportion of observed infections in surveyed cohabiting couples that occurred prior to couple formation, between couple members, and through extra-couple intercourse.
Findings
We estimate that extra-couple transmission accounts for between 27-61% and 21-51% of all infected males and females, respectively, in surveyed couples, with the ranges given reflecting inter-country variation. We project that over the next year extra-couple transmission will account for 30-65% and 10-47% of new incident HIV infections in males and females, respectively, in cohabiting couples. Our results also suggest that the directionality of transmission within couples is largely from males to females; however, females experience a very high-risk period prior to couple formation.
Interpretation
Due to the large contribution of extra-couple transmission, HIV prevention interventions should target the general sexually active population, and not just serodiscordant couples.