2021
DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1894021
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The future of UN peace operations: Principled adaptation through phases of contraction, moderation, and renewal

Abstract: This article considers the future of UN peace operations through a complexity theory lens. In the short-term peacekeeping will have to adapt to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fallout of the Trump presidency. In the medium-term peacekeeping will go through a phase of uncertainty and turbulence due to geopolitical power shifts in the global order. In the longer-term peacekeeping will have to adapt to a new multipolar global order characterized by coexistence, and a changing security landscape … Show more

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Cited by 24 publications
(10 citation statements)
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“…We can thus expect that future debates in the UNSC will be more about the extent to which peace interventions are intrusive in states’ domestic affairs and prescriptive in terms of the values and norms they promote. 8 We concur with other scholars (de Coning, 2021 ) that the UN is less likely to engage in large-scale peacebuilding endeavors in the future and more likely to concentrate its efforts to manage conflicts through more minimalist—and potentially political more than peacekeeping—missions (Hellmüller et al, 2022 ). In a sense, it is possible that the future of peacebuilding is “its past” (Novosseloff, 2022 ).…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 79%
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“…We can thus expect that future debates in the UNSC will be more about the extent to which peace interventions are intrusive in states’ domestic affairs and prescriptive in terms of the values and norms they promote. 8 We concur with other scholars (de Coning, 2021 ) that the UN is less likely to engage in large-scale peacebuilding endeavors in the future and more likely to concentrate its efforts to manage conflicts through more minimalist—and potentially political more than peacekeeping—missions (Hellmüller et al, 2022 ). In a sense, it is possible that the future of peacebuilding is “its past” (Novosseloff, 2022 ).…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 79%
“…Looking at today’s world politics, scholars and practitioners have started to discuss the future of UN peace operations in the nascent multipolar world order (Cassin & Zyla, 2021 ; Coleman & Williams, 2021 ; de Coning, 2021 ; de Coning & Peter, 2019 ; Kenkel & Foley, 2021 ; Osland & Peter, 2021 ). Multipolarity is characterized by more diffused power structures.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…This decline in relevance of multilateral peace operations is likely to continue in a stalled UN Security Council. In the near future, observers do not expect the UN to be “mandated to launch robust, large, and costly new UN peacekeeping operations or reform processes” (de Coning 2021 , p. 216; Osland and Peter 2021 ). Already challenged by budget cuts in the wake of the US Trump administration and burdened by the COVID-19-pandemic, UN peacekeeping is likely to face further cuts, as political priorities and attention across Europe and beyond shift to territorial defense and within-alliance cooperation.…”
Section: (Liberal) Peacebuilding: Decline Rivalry or Cooperation?mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In addition to the heavyhanded military operations fueling broader animosity, jihadists have turned this to their advantage (Osland & Erstad, 2020;United Nations, 2020b). Similarly, in South Sudan UN forces are protecting internally displaced people (IDP) camps from state security services, while simultaneously depending on the host state to consent to their presence (Day, 2019).…”
Section: Un Peace Operations and The Problem With Their Current Trajectorymentioning
confidence: 99%