2021
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0358
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The future of zoonotic risk prediction

Abstract: In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the f… Show more

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Cited by 67 publications
(65 citation statements)
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“…Global climate change and human encroachment into natural habitats is simultaneously driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and increasing disease emergence risk [2]. Climate and land cover change will alter the range distribution of species [3], an important, poorly defined predictor of zoonotic (animal to human) disease risk [4,5], and the direction and magnitude of range shifts are not estimated for many species, leaving the impacts on their viral interactions uncertain [6,7].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Global climate change and human encroachment into natural habitats is simultaneously driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and increasing disease emergence risk [2]. Climate and land cover change will alter the range distribution of species [3], an important, poorly defined predictor of zoonotic (animal to human) disease risk [4,5], and the direction and magnitude of range shifts are not estimated for many species, leaving the impacts on their viral interactions uncertain [6,7].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Code could be used directly or adapted to achieve nefarious goals [ 37 , 38 ]. Machine learning–guided engineering of antibiotic resistance genes exemplifies this: A model for engineering Escherichia coli β-lactamase has been described and shared openly [ 39 ].…”
Section: Open Code Data and Materials: A Challenge For Mitigating Misusementioning
confidence: 99%
“…There are 17 stable roosts of mixed Pteropus species in Sydney, although individual bats migrate long distances and visit other roosts in the bush 54 , permitting exchange of potential pathogens. Thus, although it behooves us to scan the far horizon for pandemic preparedness using a panoply of modern approaches 66 , the next “exotic” epidemic might well arise in an orchard or the belfry of a church or temple.…”
Section: Ecology Of Emergencementioning
confidence: 99%