The Gains from Catch‐up for China and the USA: An Empirical Framework

Abstract

As China becomes more closely entwined with the USA, positive shocks in the USA translate into positive outcomes for China, but any gain to the USA is less clear. We develop a framework of two interacting open economies in which Chinese gross domestic product per capita moves towards long‐run convergence with the USA. Although the short‐run interactions are constant over time, the resulting model implies that the impulse responses of both countries may be sensitive to the timing of shocks. Empirical results show the changing effects of US shocks, with both countries benefiting from the catch‐up process.

Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States

“…The magnitude is similar to that in other studies using firm-level data. 34 The other parameter central to the quantification is u : a Chinese exporter's expected duration of a spell under column 2 prior to WTO accession. This reflects the exporters' beliefs for an event that never occurred so we can't defend any particular value.…”

“…In Section IVA, we show that the quantification results are not very sensitive to alternative feasible values of α . 37,38 34 Eaton, Kortum, and Kramarz (2011) obtain an aggregate estimate of 2.46 using French exports; Hsieh and Ossa (2016) obtain a range from 1 to 1.44 over industries using Chinese firm data. 35 The exit rate for new Chinese exporters is 0.16, implying a survival of 6.25 years (Ma, Tang, and Zhang 2014); our quantification employs 1 − β = 0.15 .…”

Multivariate decompositions and seasonal gender employment

“…The Australian labour force data can be downloaded at https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/ employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed-quarterly/feb-2020#data-download 5 The trends in Figure1suggest that female employment may be converging towards male employment. This possibility might be captured using the long-run convergence framework proposed byDungey and Osborn (2020), but such an investigation is beyond the scope of the present paper.…”