The generation of synthetic inflows via bootstrap to increase the energy efficiency of long-term hydrothermal dispatches

Castro, Cristina Márcia Barros de; Marcato, André L. M.; Souza, Reinaldo Castro; Silva, Ivo Chaves da; Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino; Pulinho, Tales

doi:10.1016/j.epsr.2015.02.014

Cited by 15 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The upper and lower limits of thermal generation are expressed in (19), and (20) indicates that the upper bound of thermal generation is related to load rate, upper power, and time duration.…”

Section: Hydro Energy Constraintsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) is presented to handle water inflow uncertainty for systems with relatively few reservoirs . When dealing with multireservoir systems, stochastic dual dynamic programming is introduced to overcome the curse of dimensionality suffering from SDP . Besides, a hybrid approach combining SDP and stochastic dual dynamic programming is proposed to retain the advantages of the 2 methods .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling for wind-hydro-thermal systems

Xia

2018

Int Trans Electr Energ Syst

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Summary A mid‐term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling model is proposed for wind‐hydro‐thermal systems in this paper. Various constraints of wind farms, thermal plants, and cascaded hydropower reservoirs are included to develop the complementarity of different energy sources. Stochastic behaviors for wind power, natural inflow, electric power, and energy demand are modeled using chance‐constrained programming and then converted into equivalent deterministic formulations to reduce the calculation complexity. Besides, to achieve the integrated optimization for generation and maintenance scheduling, detailed maintenance constraints as well as the coupling constraints of 2 tasks are considered in the scheduling model. In addition, 2 types of time indexes are used to coordinate the different time interval requirements for them. Finally, the proposed mixed integer linear programming model is solved by commercial software CPLEX. Case studies by 2 actual systems show that the integrated generation and maintenance schedules of wind‐hydro‐thermal system outperform the other conventional schemes in terms of feasibility and economy.

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Section: Hydro Energy Constraintsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling for wind-hydro-thermal systems

Xia

2018

Int Trans Electr Energ Syst

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“…It also shows that not only the availability of the reserve states can be evaluated by discrete convolution, but also their frequencies. The methodology proposed here can be applied to other countries that face similar problems, that is, expanding reliance on intermittent sources while complementing the main sources, in addition to a centralized long-term operational planning without the possibility of modifying the equations of the optimization model, as, for example, Chile [29] and Nordic countries [30]. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis combined with technical turbine information was used to obtain the historical time series from each wind farm, detailed in Section 3.1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning

et al. 2019

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In the past two decades, wind power’s share of the energy mix has grown significantly in Brazil. However, nowadays planning electricity operation in Brazil basically involves evaluating the future conditions of energy supply from hydro and thermal sources over the planning horizon. In this context, wind power sources are not stochastically treated. This work applies an innovative approach that incorporates wind power generation in the Brazilian hydro-thermal dispatch using the analytical method of Frequency & Duration. The proposed approach is applied to Brazil’s Northeast region, covering the planning period from July 2017 to December 2021, using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to simulate wind power scenarios. The obtained results are more conservative than the one currently used by the National Electric System Operator, since the proposed approach forecasts 1.8% less wind generation, especially during peak periods, and 0.67% more thermal generation. This conservatism can reduce the chance of water reservoir depletion and, also an ineffective dispatch.

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“…GEVAZP, the synthetic inflow scenarios generation model, is connected to the Newave. It selects a stochastic time series PAR (p) algorithm to guarantee similarity between historical and synthetic series [7]. The PAR (p) is an auto regressive periodic function where p can vary from 1 -6 (months), so each stochastic inflow can be dependent on the inflow that occurred in the same places up to 6 months before [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Important Issues and Results When Considering the Stochastic Representation of Wind Power Plants in a Generation Optimization Model: An Application to the Large Brazilian Interconnected Power System

Mummey¹,

Sauer²,

Ramos³

et al. 2019

EPE

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Wind power has an increasing share of the Brazilian energy market and may represent 11.6% of total capacity by 2024. For large hydro-thermal systems having high-storage capacity, a complementarity between hydro and wind production could have important effects. The current optimization models are applied to dispatch power plants to meet the market demand and optimize the generation dispatches considering only hydroelectric and thermal power plants. The remaining sources, including wind power, small-hydroelectric plants and biomass plants, are excluded from the optimization model and are included deterministically. This work introduces a general methodology to represent the stochastic behavior of wind production aimed at the planning and operation of large interconnected power systems. In fact, considering the generation of the wind power source stochastically could show the complementarity between the hydro and wind power production, reducing the energy price in the spot market with the reduction of thermal power dispatches. In addition to that, with a reduction in wind power and a simultaneous dry-season occurrence, this model, is able to show the need of thermal power plants dispatches as well as the reduction of the risk of energy shortages.

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The generation of synthetic inflows via bootstrap to increase the energy efficiency of long-term hydrothermal dispatches

Cited by 15 publications

References 27 publications

Mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling for wind-hydro-thermal systems

Mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling for wind-hydro-thermal systems

Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning

Important Issues and Results When Considering the Stochastic Representation of Wind Power Plants in a Generation Optimization Model: An Application to the Large Brazilian Interconnected Power System

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