The geography of intergenerational mobility: Evidence of educational persistence and the “Great Gatsby Curve” in Brazil

Abstract

This paper explores the variation in intergenerational educational mobility across the Brazilian states based on univariate econometric techniques. The analysis of the national household survey (PNAD‐2014) confirms a strong variation in mobility among the 27 federative units in Brazil and demonstrates a significant correlation between mobility and income inequality. In this sense, this work presents empirical evidence for the existence of the “Great Gatsby curve” within a single country: states with greater income disparities present higher levels of persistence in educational levels across generations. Finally, the paper investigates one specific mechanism behind this correlation: whether higher income inequality might lead to lower investment in human capital among children from socially vulnerable households. The paper delivers robust and compelling results showing that children born into families where the parents have not completed primary education have a statistically significant reduction in their chance of completing the educational system if they live in states with a higher level of income inequality.

Educational Inequality

“…18 This interpretation is furthermore consistent with the observation that the share of public expenditures in schooling is negatively correlated with income inequality (Rauh 2017). 19 See Deutscher and Mazumder (2020) and Deutscher and Mazumder (2021) for Australia, Leone (2019) for Brazil, Connolly, Haeck, and Lapierre (2019), Connolly, Corak, and Haeck (2019) a relation between income inequality and income mobility. For example, comparing regional estimates from Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the Netherlands, Fregoni, Havari, and Stuhler (2021) report a pronounced negative relation for all four countries.…”

Social Mobility in Developing Countries

“…For example, Brazilians born in 1990 attained on average 10 years of schooling. In contrast, their parents attained on average only six years of schooling (Leone 2017). This substantial upward mobility might be entirely consistent with no increase in relative mobility if, in a context in which everyone benefits from educational expansion, the allocation of educational gains remains as strongly tied to parents' education as before.…”

“…Researchers have found greater mobility among daughters than sons in other developing countries. Such findings characterize rural China , Brazil (Leone 2017), and the Philippines (Dacuycuy and Dacuycuy 2019). The reasons for the mobility differences between men and women vary across national contexts.…”

“…The reasons for the mobility differences between men and women vary across national contexts. In the case of Brazil, Leone (2017) found that the higher mobility of daughters than sons was driven by their higher probability of attaining post-secondary education, regardless of social origins. In the Philippines, Dacuycuy and Dacuycuy (2019) found that sons' mobility deficit could be accounted for by the stronger influence of low-educated/nonworking mothers on the school progression of sons than daughters.…”

“…More recently, Daude and Robano (2015) and have extended the comparative analysis of intergenerational educational association to virtually all Latin American countries, and Leone (2017) has offered a detailed analysis of the Brazilian case. The findings from these studies about trends over time are consistent with the findings of and the World Bank (2018): the intergenerational association measured by the regression coefficient has declined across cohorts in Latin America, but the intergenerational correlation has remained constant or declined minimally.…”