The Global Burden of Migraine: A 30-Year Trend Review and Future Projections by Age, Sex, Country, and Region

Abstract

Introduction Migraine is a prevalent neurological disorder causing significant disability worldwide. Despite extensive research on specific populations, comprehensive analyses of global trends are remains limited. Methods We extracted incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data for migraine from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Trends were analyzed across regions, age groups, sexes, and sociodemographic index (SDI) using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Predictive models (ARIMA) were used to forecast trends to 2050. Results From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of migraine significantly increased: prevalence increased by 58.15%, from 732.56 million to 1.16 billion cases, and incidence increased by 42.06%. The DALYs also increased by 58.27%. There were differences between the sexes: female individuals had higher absolute rates of migraine incidence and prevalence, but male individuals exhibited a four- to five-fold more rapid increase than female individuals in these parameters. Adolescents (< 20 years old) have the fastest growth in prevalence and DALYs. Regionally, high SDI regions having the highest age-standardized rate (ASR) and low SDI regions having the lowest ASR in DALYs. East Asia and Latin America exhibited the most significant increases in migraine burden, whereas Southeast Asia exhibited the most pronounced decrease. Predictive analysis suggests prevalence will continue to rise until 2050, particularly among male individuals and adolescents. Conclusions The global burden of migraine has significantly escalated from 1990 to 2021, with female individuals bearing a greater burden but male individuals showing a faster growth rate. Adolescents also face a rapidly rising prevalence. Disparities across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes emphasize the need for targeted public health strategies. Focused interventions are required to mitigate the growing impact of migraines on global health, particularly among male individuals and adolescents.