The global landscape of smallpox vaccination history and implications for current and future orthopoxvirus susceptibility: a modelling study

Taube, Juliana C; Rest, Eva C; Lloyd‐Smith, James O.; Bansal, Shweta

doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00664-8

Cited by 24 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…For re-emerging diseases, it is crucial to evaluate the immunity landscape. In The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Juliana C Taube and colleagues 1 use demographic modelling to generate a comprehensive and granular global immunity landscape for smallpox vaccination coverage. The authors developed an innovative approach that incorporates country-specific historical vaccination data with data on demographic growth to assess age-distributed pre-existing smallpox immunity, a proxy for orthopoxvirus immunity.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, understanding the smallpox vaccination coverage among the current population could be instrumental in identifying subpopulations most susceptible to infection and areas where widespread outbreaks are most probable. Accounting for the cross-immunity by smallpox vaccination and waning efficacy, Taube and colleagues 1 combine country-specific data on smallpox vaccination coverage before cessation of the routine vaccination campaign in that country along with data on current demography to generate a global landscape of susceptibility to orthopoxviruses including for monkeypox.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Characterisation of the global spatial landscape for vulnerability to orthopoxviruses by Taube and colleagues 1 showed that the age-specific coverage at the time of cessation of routine vaccination was the primary factor in determining the current spatial heterogeneity in susceptibility across the globe. Their finding was consistent with the observed median age of 37 (IQR 32–43) years for monkeypox infections globally, 4 and suggested previous immunity through the smallpox vaccine might be protecting the older population from monkeypox infection.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, the influenza A H1N1 pandemic in 2009 mostly affected the young population as the older population had previous immunity. 5 An accurate understanding of the immunity landscape for H1N1, such as that generated by Taube and colleagues 1 for smallpox, would have informed swift and optimal allocations of vaccines. 6 …”

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confidence: 99%

“… 12 Although there remain only two poliovirus-endemic countries (Afghanistan and Pakistan), the recent identification of polio cases in non-endemic countries such as the USA and the UK underscores the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage. 13 Global assessment of the immunity landscape of vaccine-preventable diseases, as developed by Taube and colleagues, 1 can identify locations that most need surveillance and proactive action.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Role of immunity landscape in global risk assessment of re-emerging diseases

Pandey

Galvani

2023

The Lancet Infectious Diseases

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Role of immunity landscape in global risk assessment of re-emerging diseases

Pandey

Galvani

2023

The Lancet Infectious Diseases

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Low prevalence of anti‐Orthopoxvirus neutralizing antibodies in an urban population of Brazil

Oliveira

Costa

Dutra

et al. 2023

Journal of Medical Virology

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Since 1999, Vaccinia virus (VACV) has been described as a causative agent of bovine vaccinia (BV), a zoonotic disease that occurs mainly in rural areas of Brazil. However, the circulation of VACV in urban environments and its associated burden has been poorly explored. Moreover, the current monkeypox (mpox) outbreak has raised questions regarding the immune status of the worldwide population previous vaccinated against smallpox. Hence, we conducted a cross‐sectional study to better understand the prevalence of anti‐OPV neutralizing antibodies (NA) and related exposure factors in a susceptible urban population of Brazil. A total of 372 individuals were sampled, yielding an overall seroprevalence of 16.9% (CI95% = 13.4–21.1), and antibodies titers ranging from 100 to 800 neutralizing units/mL. The prevalence of NA among individuals potentially vaccinated against smallpox (≥36 years old [yo]) was 24.9% (IC 95% = 19.5–31.2), and among those unvaccinated (<36yo) was 6.7% (IC 95% = 3.7–11.8). Interestingly, contact with horses was pointed out as an exposure factor for the presence of NA, however, the multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that age ≥36yo and the presence of vaccine take were independently associated with the presence of anti‐OPV NA. Our findings suggest that vulnerable populations could be subclinically exposed to VACV in urban areas, drawing attention to alternative routes of zoonotic VACV exposure. Our data is also important for better strategies to mitigate zoonotic OPV infections mainly among vulnerable populations.

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Elderly Individuals Exhibit Elevated Levels of Anti‐Monkeypox Virus Antibodies Compared to Adults, Youth, and Children

dos Santos,

Souza,

Fogaça

et al. 2024

Journal of Medical Virology

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The variola virus, the causative agent of smallpox, has claimed more human lives than all other infectious diseases combined. Consequently, any epidemiological event involving related viruses (orthopoxviruses) triggers significant concern, as was the case with the pandemic rise of monkeypox virus (MPXV), the causative agent of monkeypox in 2022−2023. Smallpox vaccines, based on vaccinia virus antigens, are expected to provide cross‐protection against MPXV. Studying the general seroprevalence of orthopoxviruses in populations worldwide is crucial for estimating susceptibility, risks, and the need for vaccination campaigns. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the seroprevalence of antibodies capable of recognizing MPXV in a Brazilian population and assess the potential for cross‐protection from previous smallpox vaccinations. We analyzed demographic data, vaccination records, and serum levels of anti‐MPXV IgG measured by enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in 319 volunteers from Barreiras, Bahia, Brazil. Our main findings show that the numbers of volunteers with serum samples recognizing MPXV in ELISA, as well as their serum levels of anti‐MPXV IgG, did not differ significantly according to gender or address type. However, both male and female elderly volunteers exhibited significantly higher concentrations of anti‐MPXV IgG than adults, youth, and children. These results suggest that the elderly may benefit from a cross‐reactive immune response due to previous smallpox vaccinations, whereas adults, youth, and children appear susceptible to MPXV. Further investigations involving other populations are necessary to assess the necessity of vaccinating potentially vulnerable groups.

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The global landscape of smallpox vaccination history and implications for current and future orthopoxvirus susceptibility: a modelling study

Cited by 24 publications

References 24 publications

Role of immunity landscape in global risk assessment of re-emerging diseases

Role of immunity landscape in global risk assessment of re-emerging diseases

Low prevalence of anti‐Orthopoxvirus neutralizing antibodies in an urban population of Brazil

Elderly Individuals Exhibit Elevated Levels of Anti‐Monkeypox Virus Antibodies Compared to Adults, Youth, and Children

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