The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models

Iles, Carley; Hegerl, Gabriele C.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012

Cited by 125 publications

(152 citation statements)

References 43 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

122

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…In alignment with previous studies (e.g. Iles and Hegerl, 2014;Paik and Min, 2017) the drying effect is stronger over land than over the ocean, but the drying over land is only significant until prediction years 2-5.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Although the longer persisting reduction over the ocean is seen in CMIP5 models, it cannot be detected in observations due to the short satellite time period, which covers 5 only two major eruptions (Iles and Hegerl, 2014). The timescale of the precipitation reduction over the ocean is consistent with the response of TAS (Fig.…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 52%

“…While the reduction of land precipitation is a direct feedback to the increased AOD, the precipitation changes over the ocean area temperature feedback (Iles et al, 2013). 30 Similar behavior has been found in CMIP5 model simulations, but it turned out that the precipitation changes are (Iles et al, 2013;Iles and Hegerl, 2014;Paik and Min, 2017). The latter suggest that this underestimation is connected to the underestimated latent heat flux in climate models.…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…Robock, 2000;Timmreck, 2012). The last major volcanic eruptions followed a period of reduced global precipitation (Robock and Mao, 1992;Gu and Adler, 2011;Iles and Hegerl, 2014), and volcanoes can also modulate the African and Asian Monsoon systems 20 (e.g. Liu et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Assessing the Impact of a Future Volcanic Eruption on Decadal Predictions

Illing¹,

Kadow²,

Pohlmann³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the time scale of a few years; but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the question emerges how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean, to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how 10 does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase among other things. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We 15 investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over four years of about 0.2K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025mm/day, is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger 20 than in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

show abstract

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 52%

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 56%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Assessing the Impact of a Future Volcanic Eruption on Decadal Predictions

Illing¹,

Kadow²,

Pohlmann³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Iles and Hegerl (2014) further examined the precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 historical simulations compared to three observational datasets. Global precipitation significantly decreases following eruptions in CMIP5 models, with the largest decrease in wet tropical regions.…”

Section: Natural Forcing Of Hydroclimatementioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

Smerdon¹,

Luterbacher²,

Phipps³

et al. 2017

Clim. Past

104

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

show abstract

Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity

Santer

Solomon

Bonfils

et al. 2015

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near‐global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear‐sky short‐wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near‐global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo‐caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

show abstract

The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models

Cited by 125 publications

References 43 publications

Assessing the Impact of a Future Volcanic Eruption on Decadal Predictions

Assessing the Impact of a Future Volcanic Eruption on Decadal Predictions

Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About