The global temperature anomalies related to the slowdown of atmospheric CO2 concentration observed from 1939 up to 1950

Abstract

It is very well known that carbon dioxide (CO2) accumulated in the atmosphere is the main climate driver. The first precise direct continuous measurements of the atmospheric CO2 concentration were provided from Keeling since 1958 at Mauna Loa Observatory. The measurements are going on up to day. Law Dom ice core drilling was started in 1969 by the Australian ANARE program.The slowdown of the World economic development during the World War I, the Great Depression and the World War II lead to a deceleration of the CO2 emissions. The integration of the total CO2 emissions using the impulse response function concept shows that the observed slowdown of the CO2 emission is not sufficient to explain the CO2 plateau and additional CO2 sinks are necessary. Based on multiple regression models adjusted global temperatures were determined by removal of temperature influences other than related to CO2. The adjusted temperatures follow close the CO2 radiation term. The difference between the estimated adjusted temperature time evolution with and without the CO2 slowdown and also the short time trends demonstrate very clear the close relation between the temperature change and the CO2 radiative forcing. It is shown that the slowdown of the CO2 emission in the period from 1939 to 1950 and the related CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, caused at least partially by human activities, generate slower increase of the temperature anomalies. Consequently CO2 is the leading variable of the relation surface temperature -CO2.