The Gompertz force of mortality in terms of the modal age at death

Missov, Trifon I.; Lénárt, Ádám; Németh, László; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W.

doi:10.4054/demres.2015.32.36

Cited by 47 publications

(46 citation statements)

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“…This parametrization has some advantages: 1) the parameter M t has a clearer interpretation than α t (Horiuchi et al 2013), and 2) there is a lower correlation between the parameters when the Gompertz is expressed using the modal age at death (Missov et al 2015). The parametrization presented in equation (2) also gives a starting point for decomposing changes in life expectancy due to changes in variability and shifting mortality.…”

Section: Decomposing Senescent Mortality: Gompertzmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The decomposition methodology introduced here will be presented through the Gompertz model, but it will be demonstrated that the method can be applied to other parametric models. It has been shown by Horiuchi et al (2013) and Missov et al (2015) that the hazard rate as expressed by the Gompertz model can be rewritten using the modal age at death instead of the timing parameter α t as…”

Section: Decomposing Senescent Mortality: Gompertzmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We quantify the gains in life expectancy due to changes in the timing of mortality and changes in lifespan disparities, respectively. Using newly developed parametric expressions of the force of mortality (Horiuchi et al 2013;Missov et al 2015), we decompose the change in life expectancy between two distributions by the contribution of a shift in the modal age at death and a change in variability of the age at death. This paper is divided into four sections, with this background as the first section.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality

Bergeron-Boucher¹,

Ebeling²,

Canudas-Romo³

2015

DemRes

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Section: Decomposing Senescent Mortality: Gompertzmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Decomposing Senescent Mortality: Gompertzmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality

Bergeron-Boucher¹,

Ebeling²,

Canudas-Romo³

2015

DemRes

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“…Распределение Гумбеля задается двумя параметрами: коэффициентом сдвига τ (location) и масштаба β (scale): (Gumbel, 1958;Missov et al, 2015). Ожидаемая продолжительность жизни (μ) и стандарт ное отклонение (σ) определяются, как μ = τ -γ � β, и сред …”

Section: материалы и методыunclassified

“…Исходя из эмпирических наблюдений, Б. Гомпертц предположил, что вероятность смерти возрастает экс поненциально с возрастом: h(t) = а � exp t β или в пара метризации Гумбеля: h(t) = 1 β � exp t -τ β (Gompertz, 1825;Greenwood, 1928;Gumbel, 1958;Missov et al, 2015). При этом функция дожития принимает следующий вид:…”

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A link between phenotypic robustness and life expectancy in Drosophila melanogaster

Zakharenko¹,

Petrovskii²,

Дранов³

et al. 2017

Vestn. VOGiS

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Long-lived systems are expected to be stable, i. e. resistant to either external influences, or internal failures. Robustness of biological systems can be defined as a reciprocal value to their phenotypic plasticity expressed through a coefficient of variation (C.V.) for positively distributed phenotypic traits. Considering lifespan as phenotype, which integrates all functions of an organism, we showed that its phenotypic robustness correlates positively with life expectancy. We assessed lifespan parameters for a selection of inbred Drosophila melanogaster strains from Drosophila Genetic Reference Panel (DGRP) reared at 29 ºС. The robustness of lifespan phenotype (C.V.-1 ) correlated positively with estimated life expectancy for these strains. The same relation also holds for the lifespan of all DGRP strains reared at 25 ºС. Also, in agreement with previous observations, upon temperature change (decrease or increase) the survival curves scaled in time (stretched or shrunk respectively). In other words, the average lifespan decreased for flies reared at elevated temperature, but so did the standard deviation, and thus the coefficients of variation remained in the same range. From this we conclude that coefficients of variation correlate with life expectancies and account for the robustness of lifespan phenotype irrespective of accelerated aging caused by temperature.Key words: lifespan; life expectancy; aging; phenotypic plasticity; phenotypic robustness; Drosophila melanogaster.Любая долгоживущая система должна быть стабильной, т. е. обла-дать повышенной устойчивостью как к внешним воздействиям, так и к внутренним сбоям. Робастность биологических систем может быть определена как реципрокная величина к фенотипической изменчивости или, для положительно распределенных признаков, к коэффициенту вариации (C.V.). Рассматривая продолжительность жизни как интегральный фенотип всех функций организма, мы по-казали, что фенотипическая робастность организма положитель-но коррелирует с ожидаемой продолжительностью жизни. Мы определили параметры продолжительности жизни для ряда ин-бредных линий Drosophila melanogaster, выращенных при 29 ºС, из коллекции Drosophila Genetic Reference Panel (DGRP). Фенотипиче-ская робастность продолжительности жизни (C.V.-1 ) для этих линий коррелировала положительно с ожидаемой продолжительностью жизни. Соотношение между робастностью и ожидаемой продол-жительностью жизни сохраняется и для DGRP линий, выра щенных при 25 ºС. Помимо этого, в соответствии с ранее опубли кованными результатами, с изменением (уменьшением или увели чением) тем-пературы кривые дожития масштабируются (растягиваются или сжимаются соответственно) по временной шкале. Иными словами, с увеличением температуры падает как средняя продолжитель-ность жизни, так и стандартное отклонение от средней продолжи-тельности жизни, в то время как коэффициенты вариации сохра-няются в том же диапазоне. Исходя из этого, мы заключили, что коэффициенты вариации коррелируют со средней продолжитель-ностью жизни и отражают фенотипическую робастно...

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Adult mortality in the metropolis of London 1100–1850: A Bayesian view based on osteological data

Müller‐Scheeßel,

Rinne,

Fuchs

2024

American Journal of Biological Anthropology

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ObjectivesThe present paper highlights the potential of osteological data for answering demographic questions through the development and application of a Bayesian approach incorporating age estimations of adults.Materials and methodsThe metropolis of London is a rewarding study region for such an approach due to the large number of cemeteries, with thousands of individuals, spanning a period from 1100 AD to the mid‐19th century, that have been excavated and published in the past two decades. Furthermore, London has a rich tradition of early written records on mortality that can be used for comparison purposes. In order to gain comparable results from the different source categories, we use a Bayesian framework in which the Gompertz distribution features centrally.ResultsOur intensive simulations show that the Bayesian approach performs better than maximum likelihood estimation or ordinary least squares in terms of recovering the original age distribution parameters. They also show how strongly population growth affects mortality patterns. The osteological data suggests that during medieval times and the Early Modern period, the modal age‐at‐death of the general population of London remained more or less constant and hovered around 30 years, and that only monks showed a higher modal age, of about 45 years. However, from the 17th century onwards, life expectancy of adults increased markedly.DiscussionOur comparison of written sources and osteological data demonstrates their general comparability and highlights the much higher mortality among adults in London than in the rest of England and Wales. We conclude that Bayesian modeling has great potential for recovering true mortality patterns from osteological data.

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The Gompertz force of mortality in terms of the modal age at death

Cited by 47 publications

References 23 publications

Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality

Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality

A link between phenotypic robustness and life expectancy in Drosophila melanogaster

Adult mortality in the metropolis of London 1100–1850: A Bayesian view based on osteological data

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