The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution

Abstract

Within the context of ongoing environmental changes, the life history of diadromous fish represents a real potential for exploring and colonizing new environments due to high potential dispersal abilities. The use of dynamic approaches to assess how these species will respond to climate change is a challenging issue and mechanistic models able to incorporate biological and evolutionary processes are a promising tool. To this end we developed an individual-based model, called GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics for Diadromous fish Distribution), combining climatic requirements and population dynamics with an explicit dispersal process to evaluate potential evolution of their distribution area in the context of climatic change. This paper describes thoroughly the model structure and presents an exploratory test case where the repositioning of a virtual allis shad (Alosa alosa L.) population between two river catchments under a scenario of temperature increase was assessed. The global sensitivity analysis showed that landscape structure and parameters related to sea lifespan and to survival at sea were crucial to determine the success of colonization. These results were consistent with the ecology of this species. The integration of climatic factors directly into the processes and the explicit dispersal process make GR3D an original and relevant tool to assess the repositioning dynamics and persistence of diadromous fish facing climate change.

Freshwater eels: A symbol of the effects of global change

“…Of course, temperate eels are not the only species endangered by global change and most diadromous fishes have undergone severe declines (Limburg & Waldman, ; McDowall, ; Mota et al., ). The effects of fragmentation (Haxton & Cano, ; Larinier, ; Limburg & Waldman, ), global warming (Elliott & Elliott, ; Friedland, ; Friedland, Hansen, Dunkley, & MacLean, ; Jonsson & Jonsson, ; Lassalle, Béguer, Beaulaton, & Rochard, ; Lassalle et al., ; Rougier et al., ), fisheries and pollution (Limburg & Waldman, ; McDowall, ) have been documented for most of these species. More generally, most migratory animals regardless of taxa have undergone similar declines (Berger, Young, & Berger, ; Sanderson, Donald, Pain, Burfield, & van Bommel, ; Wilcove & Wikelski, ) raising the question of sustainability of migratory tactics in the face of global change.…”

Thermal tolerance of allis shad (Alosa alosa) embryos and larvae: Modeling and potential applications

“…30, 2 (2017) In contrast, abundances have tended to increase in the northernmost watersheds, such as in the Vire watershed. The declines in the south and increases in the north may indicate a shift of distribution area due to climate change (Rougier et al 2014).…”

The need for a protean fisheries science to address the degradation of exploited aquatic ecosystems

“…Demo-genetic models that combine mechanistic population dynamics and evolutionary processes have been developed to explore the ability of species to adapt to climate change (e.g., Piou and Prévost 2012;Mateo et al, in this symposium). Similarly, models coupling dispersion modules with climatic scenarios have been developed to predict the ability of species to adapt their distribution areas in a context of climate change (Rougier et al 2014). Statistical approaches have also been used to explore phenological adaptations to climate change (Chevillot et al, in this symposium).…”