The Great Chinese Housing Boom

Fawley, Brett W.; Wen, Yi

doi:10.20955/es.2013.13

Cited by 17 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…It is worth noting that there are limitations regarding the use of NTL to depict local socioeconomic activities in some of China's regions. For example, as a result of rapid development of real estate, some regions may exhibit a high vacancy rate regarding housing, resulting in the creation of what are referred to as ghost cities [47].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nighttime Light Derived Assessment of Regional Inequality of Socioeconomic Development in China

Zhou

et al. 2015

Remote Sensing

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Satellite-derived nighttime light (NTL) data have been extensively used as an efficient proxy measure for monitoring urbanization dynamics and socioeconomic activity. This is because remotely sensed NTL signals can be quantitatively connected to demographic and socioeconomic variables at regional and global scales. The recently composited cloud-free NTL imagery derived from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP) satellite provides spatially detailed observations of human settlements. We quantitatively estimated socioeconomic development inequalities across 30 provinces and municipalities in mainland China using VIIRS NTL data associated with both regional gross domestic product (GDP) and population census data. We quantitatively investigated relations between NTL, GDP, and population using a linear regression model. Our results suggest that NTL radiances have significant positive correlations with GDP and population at different levels. Several inequality coefficients, commonly used in economics, were derived from VIIRS NTL data and statistical data at multiple spatial scales. Compared with the statistical data, NTL-derived inequality coefficients enabled us to elicit more detailed information on differences in regional development at multiple levels. Our study of provinces and municipalities revealed that county-level inequality was more significant OPEN ACCESSRemote Sens. 2015, 7 1243 than city-level inequality. The results of population-weighted NTL inequality indicate an obvious regional disparity with NTL distribution being more unequal in China's undeveloped western regions compared with more developed eastern regions. Our findings suggest that given the timely and spatially explicit advantages of VIIRS, NTL data are capable of providing comprehensive information regarding inequality at multiple levels, which is not possible through the use of traditional statistical sources.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nighttime Light Derived Assessment of Regional Inequality of Socioeconomic Development in China

Zhou

et al. 2015

Remote Sensing

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“…Also, an interesting phenomenon in Chinese cities is a high vacancy rate of housing. For example, Mak, Choy, and Ho (2007) report a 20-30 percent vacancy rate in major cities; Fawley and Wen (2013) show that the vacancy rates in urban China are between 25 and 30 percent. Many housing flats were purchased for speculation rather than for consumption or investment (i.e., for rent).…”

Section: Recent Government Housing Policies and Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Pushes Up China’s Urban Housing Price So High?

Li¹,

Song

2016

The Chinese Economy

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Since the housing reform in 1998, real housing prices in China's urban areas have increased 60 percent, much faster than the growth rate of disposable income. Consequently, the price-income ratio rose from 7.11 in 1998 to 15.37 in 2012, indicating a dramatic decrease in housing affordability. This article first describes the skyrocketing of China's urban housing prices. It then discusses factors that led to the soaring housing prices, including institutional, cultural, and economic factors. Finally, the article examines recent government housing policies and their effectiveness. The article argues that removing the local government's double monopoly powers and replacing taxes and fees at transactions with property taxes during possession could better control China's fast growing housing price.

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“…Real estate is among the few assets available to Chinese households given the capital controls that limit the ability to invest overseas and the non-competitive caps on banks'deposit rates. Households hold housing, gold, or bank accounts because they wish to save (Fawley and Wen 2013). Thus, the forces pushing for high savings also push for higher housing demand.…”

Section: Preferences Towards Savingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Drives Housing Dynamics in China? A Sign Restrictions VAR Approach

Bian

Gete

2014

gwp

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We study housing dynamics in China using vector autoregressions identified with theoryconsistent sign restrictions. We study five potential drivers: 1) Population increases ; 2) a relaxation of credit standards, for example, due to the shadow banking system; 3) increasing preferences towards housing, for example, due to a housing bubble, or to housing being a status asset in the marriage market; 4) an increase in the savings rate; and 5) expected productivity progress. Our results show that fundamental shocks (population, credit and productivity) played a major role in the dynamics of house prices and residential investment before 2009. Preference shocks seem especially relevant in the last several years.

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The Great Chinese Housing Boom

Abstract: Significant store-of-value demand for housing suggests a bubble that could burst, especially when both the household income growth rate and the savings rate start to decline and capital controls in China start to relax.

Cited by 17 publications

References 2 publications

Nighttime Light Derived Assessment of Regional Inequality of Socioeconomic Development in China

Nighttime Light Derived Assessment of Regional Inequality of Socioeconomic Development in China

What Pushes Up China’s Urban Housing Price So High?

What Drives Housing Dynamics in China? A Sign Restrictions VAR Approach

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