The Green Transition and Political Polarization Along Occupational Lines

Abstract

The green transition creates economic winners and losers. To what extent has the energy transition resulted in political polarization along occupational lines? We examine this question in the context of Germany, a country that has adopted some of the most far-reaching energy transition policies and that also has substantial employment in heavy emissions occupations. The far-right AfD party started campaigning as the only party opposing energy transition policies in 2016. Using a difference-in-differences design, we show that, after the 2013 election, AfD support increased in counties with larger shares of employment in polluting occupations. We then use individual-level panel data to show that since 2016, individuals in polluting occupations have become significantly more likely to identify with the far-right. We further demonstrate that these findings are not due to simultaneous political changes, most notably (i) differential activation of xenophobia after 2015 and (ii) losses in manufacturing employment. This suggests that far-right parties have benefited from concerns over present and future energy transition policies.