The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster

Hudnut, K. W.; Wein, Anne; Cox, Dale A.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Bruce, Jennifer L.; LaPointe, Drew

doi:10.3133/fs20183016

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…The color shading represents the loss ratios for each building, calculated as the mean repair costs normalized by the building replacement value. Also shown in the figure is a comparison to the loss ratios reported in the USGS Mw 7.0 Haywired Earthquake Scenario (Hudnut et al, 2018). Exposure and losses in the Haywired scenario were calculated using the HAZUS software.…”

Section: Illustrative Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Cloud-Enabled Application Framework for Simulating Regional-Scale Impacts of Natural Hazards on the Built Environment

Deierlein

McKenna

Zsarnóczay

et al. 2020

Front. Built Environ.

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With the goal to facilitate evaluation and mitigation of the risks from natural hazards, the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure’s Computational Modeling, and Simulation Center (NHERI SimCenter) is developing computational workflows for regional hazard simulations. These simulations enable research to combine detailed assessments of individual facilities with comprehensive regional-scale simulations of natural hazard effects. By integration of multi-fidelity and multi-resolution models to assess natural hazard impacts on buildings, infrastructure systems and other constructed facilities, the approach enables the engineering analysis of public policies and socio-economic impacts. Effective development of platforms for high-resolution regional simulations requires modular workflows that can integrate state-of-the-art models with information technologies and high-performance computing resources. In this paper, the modular architecture of the computational workflow models is described and illustrated through testbed applications to evaluate regional building damage under an earthquake and a hurricane scenario. Developed and disseminated as open-source software on the NHERI DesignSafe Cyberinfrastructure, the computational models and workflows are enabling multi-disciplinary collaboration on research to mitigate the effects of natural hazard disasters.

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Section: Illustrative Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Cloud-Enabled Application Framework for Simulating Regional-Scale Impacts of Natural Hazards on the Built Environment

Deierlein

McKenna

Zsarnóczay

et al. 2020

Front. Built Environ.

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“…A low mountain ridge to the east separates the primary study area BAY from the rest of county (ROC). This ridge is the upwelling of the Hayward Fault [8]. We used ZIP-code (ZIP) of patient residence to assign city, assigned cities to BAY or ROC, and within BAY, flagged ZIPS warned to SIP.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One Rodeo refinery paid nearly a million dollars in fines since 2014 [5] and currently is seeking permits to become a major tar sands processor [6, 7]. These refineries and all towns affected by the 2012 CRI are 0–10 miles from the Hayward Fault upwelling [8, 9]. Earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault to the west and the Hayward Fault formed San Francisco Bay.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Smoke inhalation produces long term pathology that includes worsening of asthma and cardiovascular effects such as stroke and cardiac disease [21, 30, 31]. People with existing heart or lung disease, people with diabetes, older adults, children, and people of lower socio-economic status have greater risk of particle pollution health effects [8, 9, 32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hospital, health, and community burden after oil refinery fires, Richmond, California 2007 and 2012

et al. 2019

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Introduction Emergency Departments experience a significant census burst after disasters. The aim of this study is to describe patient presentations at Emergency Departments in Contra Costa County, California following chemical release incidents at an oil refinery in 2007 and 2012. Specific areas of focus include hospital and community burden with an emphasis on disease classes. Methods Searching 4 weeks before through 4 weeks after each event, Emergency Department abstracts identified patients living in Contra Costa County and seeking care there or in neighboring Alameda County. City and ZIP-code of residence established proximity to the refinery. This provided the following contrast groups: Event (2007, 2012), time (before, after), location (bayside, rest of county), and within bayside, warned or not warned to shelter in place. Using the Multi-Level Clinical Classification Software, we classified primary health groups recorded 4 weeks before and after the events, then summarized the data, calculated rates, and made tables, graphs, and maps to highlight findings. Results Number of visits meeting selection criteria totalled 105020 records. Visits increased modestly but statistically significantly after the 2007 incident. After the 2012 incident, two Emergency Departments took the brunt of the surge. Censuses increased from less than 600 a week each to respectively 5719 and 3072 the first week, with the greatest number 2 days post-event. It took 4 weeks for censuses to return to normal. The most common diagnosis groups that spiked were nervous/sensory, respiratory, circulatory, and injury. Bayside communities had statistically significant increases in residents seeking care. Specifically, visits of residents in warned communities nearest the refinery increased by a factor of 3.7 while visits of residents in other nearby un-warned communities increased by a factor of 1.5. Conclusions The 2012 Emergency Department census peaked in the first week and did not return to normal for 4 weeks. Diagnoses changed to reflect conditions associated with reactions to chemical exposures. Surrounding communities and nearby hospitals experienced significant emergent burdens. In addition to changes from such events in patient diagnoses and community burden, the discussion highlights the long-term implications of failures to require adequate monitoring and warning systems and failures of health planning. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12940-019-0484-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…Of the cities identified in the figure, there is nearly a 60% chance that at least one, and nearly a 40% chance that two or more, will experience such an event in the next 50 years. In regions of high seismic risk where an earthquake hasn't occurred for some time, scenario studies can be used to understand the potential impacts of future large earthquakes:  In a more recent USGS study of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake scenario on the Hayward Fault along the east side of San Francisco Bay, Hudnut et al (2018) estimates 800 deaths, 18,000 injuries, and property damage and direct economic losses of more than $82 billion (2016 dollars).…”

Section: : Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recommended Options for Improving the Built Environment for Post-Earthquake Reoccupancy and Functional Recovery Time

Sattar¹

2021

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ATC, was charged with developing the report, and a Project Review Panel, led by STPI, was charged with providing review and feedback on the report during development. FEMA and NIST greatly appreciate the efforts of the Project Technical Panel for their contributions in developing the original source material for this report, and to the leadership of Ryan Kersting (Chair), Lucy Arendt, Craig Davis, and Ron Hamburger who served as lead authors. NIST and FEMA also acknowledge the members of the Project Review Panel, under the direction of STPI, for providing peer review and comment at different stages of report development. NIST and FEMA also recognize the contributions of the many individuals who participated in a series of stakeholder workshops, facilitated by STPI, at five locations across the United States. Insights from these regional discussions helped shape the content of the final report. Finally, FEMA and NIST recognize the dedication that Jon Heintz of the Applied Technology Council showed in preparing this high-quality product under unexpected conditions and tight scheduling. The final report benefited from his leadership and guidance. The names and affiliations of all who contributed to this report are provided in the list of participants at the end of this report.

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The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster

Cited by 14 publications

References 0 publications

A Cloud-Enabled Application Framework for Simulating Regional-Scale Impacts of Natural Hazards on the Built Environment

A Cloud-Enabled Application Framework for Simulating Regional-Scale Impacts of Natural Hazards on the Built Environment

Hospital, health, and community burden after oil refinery fires, Richmond, California 2007 and 2012

Recommended Options for Improving the Built Environment for Post-Earthquake Reoccupancy and Functional Recovery Time

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