The (hidden) costs of political instability: Evidence from Kenya's 2007 election crisis

Abstract

This paper studies the microeconomic impacts of the political crisis and civil con ‡ict that immediately followed the December 2007 Presidential Election in Kenya. Income, expenditures, and consumption dramatically declined for a broad segment of the rural population for the duration of the con ‡ict. To make up for the income shortfall, women who supply transactional sex engaged in higher risk sex both during and after the crisis. While this particular crisis was likely too short for these behavioral responses to seriously increase the risk of HIV or other STIs for these women, such responses could have long-term repercussions for health in countries with longer or more frequent crises. Overall, our results suggest that social unrest can be an important channel through which political instability can a¤ect long-term outcomes such as health.

Economic booms and risky sexual behavior: Evidence from Zambian copper mining cities

“…Other studies which examine compensating differentials in sex markets, such as Gertler et al (2005), find that unprotected sex is associated with a price premium in the transactional sex market, possibly suggesting that rising incomes among consumers of transactional sex may lead to increased risky sexual behavior. Dupas and Robinson (2011) is one of the few microeconomic analyses of the effects of a large (albeit relatively short-lived) country-wide shock on the supply of risky sexual behavior.…”

Optimism and Consumption: Psychological Costs of Malaysia-Sulu Dispute

“…Reciprocal with the review of Cramer (2002), the uncontrol condition such as conflict, war, or dispute also tells policy maker that war only give psychological problem leading to extra consumption. For instance, the Sultanate Sulu dispute against Malaysia might result a decreasing wealth and increasing mental health to Sabah Malaysia, which is a trigger for worse outcome such as coup, political instability, and sporadic separation movement (i.e., DeFronzo, 1991;Alesina and Perroti, 1996;Miller, 2011;Dupas and Robinson, 2012). This means that policy maker has to know the fastest solution to overcome dispute, hence, it will avoid depleting wealth of nation.…”

Coping with Political Instability: Micro Evidence from Kenya's 2007 Election Crisis

“…Were wealthier households less affected by this temporary crisis? In Dupas and Robinson (2010), we study the coping mechanisms people used and test for heterogeneity in the effects of the crisis by background characteristics. We find surprisingly little heterogeneity in households' ability to smooth over the shock.…”

“…At low income levels, the most vulnerable may be forced to engage in behavior which temporarily increases income at the expense of long term well-being. In Dupas and Robinson (2010), we look at one possible long term cost of civil conflict: we analyze the effect of the crisis on the frequency with which women supply unprotected transactional sex. In this part of Kenya, there appears to be a price premium for unprotected sex, so that women with short term liquidity needs may choose to have unprotected sex to make up for temporary income shortfalls, even at the cost of increased HIV risk (Robinson and Yeh 2009).…”