The home team weather advantage and biases in the NFL betting market

Borghesi, Richard

doi:10.1016/j.jeconbus.2006.09.001

Cited by 38 publications

(50 citation statements)

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“…This may be due to (very) small sample inference on the part of present bettors. Perhaps closer in focus to the present study, Borghesi (2007) finds that the NFL totals betting market does not accurately account for the degree to which wind, heat, and rain decrease a game's point total. He further presents a (partly weather-related) betting strategy that proves to be economically profitable.…”

Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 66%

Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football

Kuester

Sanders

2009

J Econ Finan

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Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 66%

Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football

Kuester

Sanders

2009

J Econ Finan

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“…DISTANCE 2 j;t is the square of distance, included to allow travel to have a nonlinear impact on the outcome of the game. COLDADV j,t is the home team's cold-acclimatization advantage as defined in Borghesi (2007b) . 4 This variable is the difference in the visiting team's average temperature for the 5 days prior to the game from the home team's average temperature over the same period when the temperature on game day is below both teams' average acclimatization temperature.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Visiting Team Travel on Game Outcome and Biases in NFL Betting Markets

Nichols

2012

Journal of Sports Economics

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Using data on regular season National Football League games from 1981-2004, this study examines the impact that travel has on game outcome and whether betting markets fully incorporate this information. A visiting team travelling west to east and crossing at least one time zone is shown to significantly increase the probability of the home team winning. This impact increases with distance, but at a decreasing rate. Evidence on whether betting markets fully account for this travel effect is mixed. While there is evidence that markets do not fully account for the impact of travel and that bettors underestimate the home team's score whenever the visitor crosses a time zone, the model does not provide a profitable betting strategy out of sample. Thus, any bias is likely too small to profitably exploit.

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“…Moreover, with the prominent role of snow and temperature-dependent sports at the OWG, there is a clear relevance of sports and weather research for further understanding the climate vulnerability of the games itself. Studies that have examined the impacts of weather on Olympic sports (Borghesi, 2007;Koch & Panorska, 2013;Martin, 1996;Peiser & Reilly, 2004;Verdaguer-Codina, Martin, Pujol-Amat, Ruiz, & Prat, 1995), cold weather athletic performance (Buhl, Fauve, & Rhyner, 2001;Gould, Greenleaf, Chung, & Guinan, 2002;Niinimaa, Shephard, & Dyon, 1979;Rammsayer, Bahner, & Netter, 1995) and winter tourism events (Scott et al, 2002;Scott, McBoyle, Minogue, & Mills, 2006) offer additional insights into how changing temperatures and snow conditions could affect the performance of Olympic athletes and the comfort of spectators. This study considers the insights from this body of work in the specific context of developing climate change vulnerability indicators and adaptation strategies.…”

Section: Climate Change and Vulnerability Of Winter Sportsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of the Olympic Winter Games in an era of climate change

Scott

Steiger

Rutty

et al. 2014

Current Issues in Tourism

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The Olympic Winter Games (OWG) stands as a symbol of international cross-cultural exchange through elite-level sport. As a mega-event with a significant reliance on a specific range of weather conditions for outdoor competitions, the OWG have developed several technologies and strategies to manage weather risk. Can these climatic adaptations cope with future climate change? Based on an analysis of two key climate indicators (probability of a minimum temperature of ≤08C, and probability of a snow depth of ≥30 centimetres with advanced snowmaking capacity), this paper examines how projected changes to climate will impact the ability of the 19 previous host cities/regions to provide suitable conditions for outdoor competitions in the future. The results indicate that while the 19 former OWG hosts all have a suitable climate in the 1981-2010 period, only 11 or 10 (low -high-emission scenarios) remain climatically suitable in the 2050s, with as few as 6 in the high-emission scenario of the 2080s. The analysis reveals that climate change has important implications for the future geography of OWG host cities/ regions as well as broader implications for participation in winter sport.

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The home team weather advantage and biases in the NFL betting market

Cited by 38 publications

References 10 publications

Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football

Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football

The Impact of Visiting Team Travel on Game Outcome and Biases in NFL Betting Markets

The future of the Olympic Winter Games in an era of climate change

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