The HotSpot Code as a Tool to Improve Risk Analysis During Emergencies: Predicting I-131 and CS-137 Dispersion in the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Malizia, Andrea; Chierici, Andrea; Biancotto, Sergio; D’Arienzo, Marco; Ludovici, Gian Marco; D’Errico, Francesco; Manenti, Guglielmo; Marturano, Fabio

doi:10.18280/ijsse.110421

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Several studies have analyzed these higher plants in the forests of the ex-evacuation zone. Precisely in this area, about eight months after the accident, in November 2011, a thorough investigation was conducted, but no chronic radiation injuries such as morphological anomalies or yellowing and fall of the leaves were observed [30][31][32][33]. These same observations also occurred in the forest most contaminated by the accident, about 3 km west of FNPP [28][29][30].…”

Section: Fukushima Dai-ichi Overviewmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Research into the long-term effects on flora, fauna and human health following the FNPP incident is constantly evolving and proceeding relentlessly [7]. The CNPP and FNPP accidents provide unique opportunities on the investigation of radiological consequences and radiation effects on environment in a large scale that cannot be observed in the laboratory, not only for the health of higher plants but also for human health [32,[44][45][46][47]. Prior to the Fukushima incident, few decision makers paid attention to the need to plan health investigations following a large-scale radiation scattering incident [47][48][49].…”

Section: Current and Future Perspectives: Management In The Medical F...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of Ionizing Radiation on Flora Ten Years after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Disaster

Ludovici

Chierici

Souza

et al. 2022

Plants

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The aim of this work is to analyze the effects of ionizing radiation and radionuclides (like 137Cs) in several higher plants located around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP), evaluating both their adaptive processes and evolution. After the FNPP accident in March 2011 much attention was focused to the biological consequences of ionizing radiation and radionuclides released in the area surrounding the nuclear plant. This unexpected mishap led to the emission of radionuclides in aerosol and gaseous forms from the power plant, which contaminated a large area, including wild forest, cities, farmlands, mountains, and the sea, causing serious problems. Large quantities of 131I, 137Cs, and 134Cs were detected in the fallout. People were evacuated but the flora continued to be affected by the radiation exposure and by the radioactive dusts’ fallout. The response of biota to FNPP irradiation was a complex interaction among radiation dose, dose rate, temporal and spatial variation, varying radiation sensitivities of the different plants’ species, and indirect effects from other events. The repeated ionizing radiations, acute or chronic, guarantee an adaptation of the plant species, demonstrating a radio-resistance. Consequently, ionizing radiation affects the genetic structure, especially during chronic irradiation, reducing genetic variability. This reduction is associated with the different susceptibility of plant species to chronic stress. This would confirm the adaptive theory associated with this phenomenon. The effects that ionizing radiation has on different life forms are examined in this review using the FNPP disaster as a case study focusing the attention ten years after the accident.

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Section: Fukushima Dai-ichi Overviewmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Current and Future Perspectives: Management In The Medical F...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Ionizing Radiation on Flora Ten Years after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Disaster

Ludovici

Chierici

Souza

et al. 2022

Plants

Self Cite

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“…foundation code Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) using a SEIR epidemic model STEM in a manner congruent with those of a common flu (Orthomyxovirus). The HotSpot code generally provides a conservative estimate of the radiation effects associated with the atmospheric release of radioactive materials [7,8,9] and it is designed for shortrange, less than 10Km, and short-term, less than a few hours, predictions [7,10].…”

Section: On the Use Of Free Code Tools To Simulate The Propagation Of...mentioning

confidence: 99%

On the use of free code tools to simulate the propagation of radiation following dirty bomb explosions in sensible contexts

Quaranta,

Ludovici,

Manenti

et al. 2023

EPJ Web Conf.

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The current geopolitical situation suggests an increasing possibility of radiological dispersal device attacks on sensitive targets. Consequently, understanding the transport of radiation over great distances in a short time can help first responders and decision makers in effectively managing emergencies. By utilizing open-source computational codes, intentional releases of radioactive material and their transmission from person to person can be simulated to provide first responders and decision makers with a rapid tool to facilitate their work. In this study, the HotSpot code was employed to simulate two releases of Cs-137 resulting from the detonation of a dirty bomb in a major city and near an aqueduct waterworks. Additionally, the STEM code was used to simulate radiation propagation from the initially affected individuals, drawing comparisons to the vectors of viral infections. This approach allowed to compare the outcomes of a scenario involving many individuals in an urban setting with another scenario having fewer individuals but posing the risk of contaminating critical infrastructure. The results showed that both scenarios had similar relatively mild health consequences for the population, despite their considerable differences and variations in the analyzed timelines. However, both scenarios present numerous challenges in emergency management. In the first case, the incident generates widespread panic and media frenzy. In the second case, the dissemination of radiation and potential public unawareness must be taken into account. Addressing these considerations needs the involvement of multiple stakeholders, including police, firefighters, healthcare professionals, journalists, politicians, and others, in emergency management efforts.

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Testing and results of an open-source radiation epidemiology model using the Goiânia accident

Quaranta,

Ludovici,

Romano

et al. 2024

Eur. Phys. J. Plus

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In the event of dispersed radioactive materials, whether from accidental orphan sources or deliberate use of radiological dispersal devices (RDD) or radiological exposure devices (RED), free open-source modelling codes can greatly assist in forecasting the dispersion of the radiation following the event. Several codes are currently available to quickly calculate the progression of radiological dispersion. However, most of these codes can only simulate the evolution of the threat for limited times after the event and over relatively short distances from the location. In order to predict the transport of radioactive material over long distances and for long times, and thus prevent its expected effects on the exposed population, specific epidemiological codes can be used, taking into account the characteristic of the radiation. If it is considered that radioactive material can be deposited on unsuspecting people who continue their daily activities after exposure, it can be assumed that these people unintentionally carry this radioactive material over long distances. This scenario is comparable to viral vectors of a hypothetical virus designed to mimic the physical characteristics of radiation. In this work, the free open-source spatio-temporal epidemiological modeller (STEM) tool is used to simulate the spread of a chimeric viral agent with specific characteristics of Ebola and COVID-19, designed to replicate the biological conditions caused by exposure to a Cs-137 source for an individual unaware of the risk. The goal is to predict the territorial spread of radioactive material caused by a CBRNe event, such as orphan sources or the use of a RDD or a RED, and its possible effects on the affected population. This supports decision-makers in forecasting the consequences of radioactive material spread and thus helps in reducing the risk. The code was tested comparing its results with the real case of the famous 1987 Goiânia radiological accident. The results show that the developed code was indeed able to accurately represent the number of contaminated individuals and the number of casualties within a month of the initial exposure, with a distribution of radioactive material in the territory similar to that actually caused by the Goiânia accident.

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The HotSpot Code as a Tool to Improve Risk Analysis During Emergencies: Predicting I-131 and CS-137 Dispersion in the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Cited by 4 publications

References 27 publications

Effects of Ionizing Radiation on Flora Ten Years after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Disaster

Effects of Ionizing Radiation on Flora Ten Years after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Disaster

On the use of free code tools to simulate the propagation of radiation following dirty bomb explosions in sensible contexts

Testing and results of an open-source radiation epidemiology model using the Goiânia accident

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