The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?

Agnello, Luca; Castro, Vı́tor; Sousa, Ricardo M.

doi:10.1007/s11146-019-09705-z

Cited by 34 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…Depending on the adopted procedure, the external image of the cycle, the location of turning points and the duration of phases will differ. In the case of analyses concerning residential cycles, the methods borrowed from analyses of business cycles dominate level cycles (Alqaralleh & Canepa, 2020;André et al, 2019;Bracke, 2013;Girouard et al, 2005), growth cycles (Agnello et al, 2020) and deviation cycles (Akimov et al, 2015;Fan et al, 2019;Gray, 2018;Zelazowski, 2017).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Trojanek

2021

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

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Using a unique dataset of 4,5 million offers, the housing cycles in 18 Polish provincial capitals were identified between 2000 and 2020 before and after the financial crisis. Differences in the course of the cycles depending on spatial diversity are presented, as well as differences in the strength of decreases and increases in individual phases. The examined housing markets in Poland have experienced significant variability in the extent of their cycles. One complete cycle was found in each of the analysed cities. Its average duration was approximately 12 years. In this cycle, residential prices (in real terms) increased by 88% on average, in the upward phase by 158%, while in the downward phase, they decreased by 27% in the cities under study. A correlation was found that implies that the higher the price rises in the upward period, the higher the price correction ensues in the cycle’s downward phase. Moreover, the similarity in fluctuations was present in the metropolitan markets in local housing markets, especially before the financial crisis. Apartment prices continued to grow by 2.9% on average in the real term during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Trojanek

2021

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

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“…These indicators were collected by the authors, based on the methodology used in [17] and [18], where the authors conducted the analysis of the mortgage politics of a commercial bank and studied the market situation. As a result of the cluster analysis, 82 Russian federal entities were grouped into five clusters (Table 3).…”

Section: E Multidimensional Grouping Of the Russian Federal Entities By The Main Indicators In Housing Mortgage Lendingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Study of Current Trends in Mortgage Lending in Russia

Babich¹,

Karmanov²,

Toropova³

et al. 2021

ujaf

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“…A more liberalized mortgage market is associated with longer housing booms and lower probability of a housing bust (Agnello et al, 2019). Financing costs have significant explanatory power in house-price dynamics, both in the Euro area (Gattini and Hiebert, 2010) and across different OECD countries (Englund and Ioannides, 1997).…”

Section: Review Of the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The supply side of product differentiation in the Italian mortgage market

Prete

Demma

Rossi

2020

IJHMA

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Purpose This paper aims to propose a new indicator of product differentiation in the mortgage market and use it to examine how the double crisis, local market competition and bank-specific characteristics have influenced the supply of non-conventional mortgages in Italy. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a special Bank of Italy’s survey on 400 Italian banks over the period 2006–2013, to compute a new indicator for product differentiation in the mortgage market. This paper considers mortgage with non-conventional characteristics: loan-to-value ratio greater than 80%; duration longer than 30 years or with a flexible maturity. This paper estimates probit and ordinary least squares (OLS) models using panel data at bank-time level. Findings The findings suggest that during the double crisis that hit the Italian economy between 2008 and 2013, the diversification process in the Italian household mortgage market slowed down. Controlling for banks’ and local markets’ this study finds that larger, less risky banks and those that have adopted scoring systems are more likely to offer non-conventional mortgages; moreover, banks operating in more competitive markets and in markets where other banks offer non-conventional loans tend to diversify their supply more. Most of these indications are confirmed by analyzing the quantities actually granted. These results suggest that the structure of the local markets does matter, and that there could be a non-price competition effect among banks in providing differentiated mortgage contracts. Originality/value The indicator, computed using data at bank level drawn from a special Bank of Italy’s survey, goes beyond the standard approach on product differentiation followed in the empirical literature, mainly base on the dichotomy between fixed and variable lending rates. Furthermore, to best of the authors’ knowledge, so far there is no empirical evidence on the supply-side factors that influenced the diversification of mortgages’ contractual terms during the crisis; particularly, there is no evidence on the role of local market competition and bank-specific features. This paper contributes to fill this gap in the literature.

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The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?

Cited by 34 publications

References 82 publications

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Statistical Study of Current Trends in Mortgage Lending in Russia

The supply side of product differentiation in the Italian mortgage market

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