The Hybridisation of Conflict: A Prospect Theoretic Analysis

Abstract

Revisionist actors are increasingly operationalising a broad number of non-violent threats in their quest to change the status quo, popularly described as hybrid conflict. From a defensive point of view, this proliferation of threats compels nations to make difficult choices in terms of force posture and composition. We examine the choice process associated with this contemporary form of state competition by modelling the interactions between two actors, i.e., a defender and a challenger. As these choices are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, we study the choice from the framework of prospect theory. This behavioural–economic perspective indicates that the defender will give a higher weight and a higher subjective value to conventional threats, inducing a higher vulnerability in the domain of hybrid deterrence. As future conflict will increasingly involve choice dilemmas, we must balance threats according to their probability of occurrence and their consequences. This article raises awareness regarding our cognitive biases when making these choices.

Unveiling determinants of household lighting preferences in rural Tanzania: insights for sustainable energy access

“…1. Figure 1 illustrates the two stages in Prospect Theory (Balcaen, 2021;Tversky & Kahneman, 1992a, 1992bWu et al, 2020). Stage 1 presents a set of independent variables (the Employing Prospect Theory, we describe the decision processes based on the available options or valuable alternatives for any of the four household lighting choices.…”

A Preface for the Special Issue “Economics of Conflict and Terrorism”

“…There are two papers that present methodological innovations. Balcaen, Du Bois and Buts [3] use prospect theory to study the uncertainty of conflicts between a State challenger and a defender. The article raises awareness with regard to cognitive bias associated with conflict choices.…”