The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Tilmes, Simone; Fasullo, John T.; Lamarque, Jean‐François; Marsh, Daniel R.; Mills, Michael J.; Alterskjær, Kari; Muri, Helene; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Boucher, Oliviér; Schulz, Mıchael; Cole, Jason N. S.; Curry, Charles L.; Jones, Andy; Haywood, Jim M.; Irvine, Peter J.; Ji, Duoying; Moore, John C.; Karam, Diana Bou; Kravitz, Ben; Rasch, Philip J.; Singh, Balwinder; Yoon, Jin‐Ho; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Robock, Alan; Yang, Shuting; Watanabe, Shingo

doi:10.1002/jgrd.50868

Cited by 251 publications

(356 citation statements)

References 97 publications

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“…Bala et al 2008;Tilmes et al 2013;Cao et al 2016), we find that the global mean precipitation decreases by ~2.5% in the GLOBAL case relative to the CTL case (Fig. 4d).…”

Section: Residual Global Climate Changementioning

confidence: 81%

Effects of Arctic geoengineering on precipitation in the tropical monsoon regions

2017

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due to Arctic geoengineering, but there is still a residual precipitation increase (up to 7%) in most monsoon regions associated with the residual CO 2 induced warming in the tropics. The ITCZ shift due to our Global geoengineering simulation, where aerosols (20 Mt) are prescribed uniformly around the globe, is much smaller and the precipitation changes in most monsoon regions are within ±2% as the residual CO 2 -induced warming in the tropics is also much less than in Arctic and Polar geoengineering. Further, global geoengineering nearly offsets the Arctic warming. Based on our results we infer that Arctic geoengineering leads to ITCZ shift and leaves residual CO 2 induced warming in the tropics resulting in substantial precipitation decreases (increases) in the Northern (Southern) hemisphere monsoon regions.

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“…Bala et al 2008;Tilmes et al 2013;Cao et al 2016), we find that the global mean precipitation decreases by ~2.5% in the GLOBAL case relative to the CTL case (Fig. 4d).…”

Section: Residual Global Climate Changementioning

confidence: 81%

Effects of Arctic geoengineering on precipitation in the tropical monsoon regions

2017

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“…Geoengineering is a method of offsetting the global temperature rise from greenhouse gases, although inevitably also altering other important climate parameters, such as precipitation and teleconnection patterns (8,9). We may thus ask the question: How successful would geoengineering be at reducing the frequency and intensity of hurricane storm surges from Atlantic hurricanes?…”

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confidence: 99%

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

Moore

Grinsted

Guo

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.

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“…These indices have been widely used previously, both for observed weather (Donat et al, 2013) and model output (Tebaldi et al, 2006;Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2012;Seneviratne et al, 2012) with Curry et al (2014) using them for G1, Aswathy et al (2015) for G3, and Sillmann et al (2013b) for CMIP5 models running the RCP scenarios. 25 We use six indices to describe temperature and precipitation extremes (Table 2), based on the daily output of surface air temperature and precipitation (tasmin, tasmax, pr). TXx and TNn are the maximum daily maximum and minimum daily minimum, respectively, of 2-m air temperature.…”

Section: Climate Extreme Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme temperature and precipitation response to solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Ji¹,

Fang²,

Curry³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. We examine extreme temperature and precipitation under two potential geoengineering methods forming part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The solar 25 dimming experiment G1 is designed to completely offset the global mean radiative forcing due to a CO2-quadrupling experiment (abrupt4×CO2), while in GeoMIP experiment G4, the radiative forcing due to the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario is partly offset by a simulated layer of aerosols in the stratosphere. Both G1 and G4 geoengineering simulations lead to lower maximum temperatures at higher latitudes, and on land primarily through feedback effects involving high latitude 30 processes such as snow cover, sea ice and soil moisture. Maximum 5-day precipitation increases over subtropical oceans, whereas warm spells decrease markedly in the tropics, and the number of consecutive dry days decreases in most deserts. The precipitation during the tropical cyclone (hurricane) seasons becomes less intense, whilst the remainder of the year becomes wetter. Aerosol injection is more effective 2 than dimming in moderating extreme precipitation (and flooding), possibly due to stratospheric warming by aerosol injection working in tandem with sea surface temperature reductions to moderate extreme tropical storm cyclogenesis. The differences in the response of temperature extremes between the two types of geoengineering are relatively minor. Despite the magnitude of the radiative forcing applied in G1 being ~6.5 times larger than in G4, and differences in the aerosol chemistry and transport schemes 5 amongst the models, one can discern clear differences in the precipitation extremes between the types of geoengineering probably due to the aerosol direct effect and related energetic changes.

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The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Cited by 251 publications

References 97 publications

Effects of Arctic geoengineering on precipitation in the tropical monsoon regions

Effects of Arctic geoengineering on precipitation in the tropical monsoon regions

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

Extreme temperature and precipitation response to solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

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