The illusion of stable fertility preferences

Measurement of Unmet Need for Contraception: A Counterfactual Approach

“…are cross-sectional. Conceptually, the use of longitudinal measures also assumes that fertility preferences are stable over time and particularly between survey rounds; the stability of fertility preferences over time has been questioned, with studies demonstrating that both women's contraceptive and fertility preferences are likely to be malleable and unstable over relatively short intervals (Trinitapoli and Yeatman 2018;Karra and Zhang 2021;Müller et al 2022).…”

“…Taken together, the findings from the review further raise questions as to whether static stated preferences, as they are currently measured, may be meaningful for inference. More recently, a study by Müller et al (2022) highlights the complexity and uncertainty with which fertility preferences are shaped, changed, and reconciled over time. Using a multi-year panel sample from Kenya, the authors find: (1) substantial variation in fertility preferences over multiple points in time; (2) the significant extent to which women's current expectations of future fertility outcomes are frequently misperceived; (3) a lack of precision with which women are able to recall their own past fertility intentions and preferences; and (4) the asymmetric nature with which women anchor at their current preferences.…”

The effect of birth intention status on infant mortality: a fixed effects analysis of 60 countries

“…Approaches aiming at capturing undesired pregnancies by defining children as "in excess" based on information about ideal family size and the number of children women has (Flatø 2018) can also be affected by ex-post realization. In fact, recent research on Malawi highlights a large degree of instability in reporting of desired fertility throughout women's life course (Müller et al 2022). Conversely, prospective reports are not subject to recall issues, but they can be biased if women alter their fertility desires between the time they were first surveyed and when the data on pregnancies were collected (Bishai et al 2015).…”

Measuring Fertility Intentions During Times of Crisis: An Example Using Survey Data Amid the Covid‐19 Pandemic

“…Fertility intentions—measures of intent regarding whether and when to have children—are important predictors of reproductive outcomes (Kodzi, Johnson, and Casterline 2010; Müeller et al. 2022; Speizer and Lance 2015; Yeatman and Sennott 2015; Yeatman, Trinitapoli, and Garner 2020; Yeatman and Trinitapoli 2020) and maternal well‐being (Mark and Cowan 2022). Regardless of whether a person's fertility intention and fertility behavior are concordant, fertility intentions are a central feature of women's lives as they reflect one's surrounding social and health structures (Bachrach and Morgan 2013) and help identify variations in women's autonomy over their reproductive lives (Yeatman, Trinitapoli, and Garner 2020).…”

“…Fertility intentions-measures of intent regarding whether and when to have childrenare important predictors of reproductive outcomes (Kodzi, Johnson, and Casterline 2010;Müeller et al 2022;Speizer and Lance 2015;Yeatman and Sennott 2015;Yeatman, Trinitapoli, and Garner 2020;Yeatman and Trinitapoli 2020) and maternal well-being (Mark and Cowan paragraphs, including changes due to the pandemic in intention to have a(nother) child, in intended timing, as well as unsurety around having a(another) child.…”